Türkiye’de Üretici Fiyat Endeksi ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Üretici fiyat endeksi ile tüketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon oranın belirlenmesi ve çeşitli ekonomik göstergelerin hesaplanmasında birbirleri yerine kullanılmaktadır. Ancak değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olması halinde bu işlemler etkili sonuçlar vermektedir. Aksi halde ele alınan fiyat endeksine göre sonuçlar değişmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada, üretici ve tüketici fiyat endeksi arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler incelenmiştir. Türkiye’de 2010:m5-2016:m4 dönemi ARDL sınır testi ile gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda, üretici fiyat endeksi (ÜFE) ve tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) arasında hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde çift yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Üretici fiyat endeksi, Tüketici fiyat endeksi, ARDL sınır testi

Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Producer price index and consumer price index are used instead of each other for calculating inflation rate and various economic indicators. However, if there is a long-run relationship between the variables, this process can provide effective results. Otherwise, the results vary according to the price index. Therefore, in this study, long and short-run relationships between producer and consumer price index was investigated. As a result of analysis performed with ARDL, bounds test for the period of 2010:m5-2016:m4 in Turkey, bi-directional and statistically significant causality has been found between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both in the short and long run.

Keywords:

Producer price index Consumer price index, ARDL, Bounds test,

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