Suriye’den Zorunlu Göçün Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Bu çalışmanın amacı Suriye’den Türkiye’ye gerçekleşen zorunlu göçün Türkiye ekonomisinin makroekonomik değişkenleri üzerindeki etkilerini ölçümlemek ve değerlendirmektir. Zorunlu göç sonucu etkilenmesi beklenen temel makroekonomik göstergelerin zorunlu göç öncesinde ve zorunlu göç sonrasında değişimi, farkların farkı yöntemi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Zorunlu göçün hem enflasyonu hem de üretimi, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı şekilde, artırdığı gözlenmektedir. Özellikle, konut fiyatlarındaki artış kayda değer görülmektedir. Tahminlerimize göre, zorunlu göç eden nüfusta %1’lik bir artış, enflasyon ve üretimi %1’den daha fazla artırmaktadır. İşsizlik değişkenine ilişkin katsayının istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir sonuç göstermediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, elde edilen sonuçlar, zorunlu göçün etkilerinin bölgesel bazda farklılıklar gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sanayi üretiminin ve ekonomik kümelenmenin yoğun olduğu bölgelerin göçten olumlu etkilendiği, buna karşın kırsal kesimde göç sonucunda makroekonomik göstergelerin kötüleştiği gözlenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Zorunlu Göç, Farkların Farkı

Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy

The purpose of this research is to analyse the economic impact of Syrian forced migration on Turkish economy. In order to assess the response of macroeconomic variables to the influx of Syrian refugees, we resort to Difference-in-Differences method. We compare Turkish provinces on the basis of three macroeconomic indicators -unemployment, inflation, and production- before and after forced migration occurred. We find that forced migration increased inflation and production significantly. In particular, housing prices rise considerably with Syrian migration. We estimate that 1% rise in migrant population raises both inflation and production by more than 1%. We find statistically insignificant coefficients for unemployment. In addition, impact of forced migration displays regional differences. Regions with clustered industrial production are affected positively by the influx of Syrian migrants. Despite positive impact on industry clusters, findings indicate some deterioration of macroeconomic indicators of rural sectors.

Keywords:

Forced Migration, Differences-in-differences,

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