OECD Ülkelerinde İşsizlik Histerisinin Ampirik Bir Analizi: Fourier Panel Durağanlık Testi

İşsizlik toplumun her kesimini ilgilendiren büyük bir konudur. Yüksek işsizlik oranı hem arz hem de talep kanalıyla çeşitli problemlere sebebiyet verebilmektedir. Bu nedenle işsizlik oranının karakteristik özelliklerini analiz etmek oldukça önemlidir. İktisat teorisinde, işsizlik histerisi ve doğal oran hipotezleri yüksek işsizlik oranının geçici mi yoksa kalıcı mı olduğuna karar vermek için test edilmektedir. Bu çalışma 1991q1- 2019q2 dönemi için 15 OECD ülkesinde işsizlik histerisinin geçerliliğini Bahmani-Oskooee, Chang ve Wu (2014) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier panel durağanlık testini kullanarak incelemektedir. Durağanlık testinin sonuçları panelin tamamı için işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin geçerliliğini desteklememektedir. Ancak, ülke özelindeki sonuçlar açısından, Almanya, Türkiye ve İspanya'da işsizlik histerisi geçerlidir. Bu bulgulara göre, hükümetler işsizlikle mücadele için makroekonomik politikaları etkin bir şekilde kullanabilirler. Aksine, geride kalan 12 OECD ülkesinde ise doğal oran hipotezi geçerlidir. Bu ülkeler için kısa süreli şokların işsizlik oranı üzerindeki etkileri geçicidir. Dolayısıyla, çalışmanın temel bulgusu 15 OECD üyesi ülkenin 12’si için fiili işsizlik oranlarının uzun dönemde doğal işsizlik oranı değerine geri döneceği göstermektedir.

An Empirical Analysis of the Unemployment Hysteresis in OECD Countries: Fourier Panel Stationary Tests

Unemployment is a major issue that concerns all segments of society. High unemployment rate can cause various problems through both supply and demand channels. It is therefore important to analyze the characteristics properties of the unemployment rate. In economic theory, the unemployment hysteresis and natural rate hypotheses are tested to decide whether high unemployment rate is temporary or permanent. This study examines the validity of the unemployment hysteresis in 15 OECD countries for the period 1991q1- 2019q2 using the Fourier panel stationary test developed by Bahmani-Oskooee Chang and Wu (2014). The results of the stationary test do not support the unemployment hysteresis for the panel as a whole. However, in terms of country specific results, the unemployment hysteresis is valid in Germany, Turkey and Spain. According to these results, governments can effectively use macroeconomic policies to fight against unemployment. In contrast, the natural unemployment rate hypothesis is valid in the remaining 12 OECD countries. The effects of short-run shocks on unemployment rate are temporary for these countries. Thus, the main finding of the study shows that actual unemployment rates will return to the natural unemployment rate for 12 out of 15 OECD countries in the long-run.

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