İlker ŞİRİN, Fanny JANSSEN

3121

Determination of ıdeal pension age and developments in ageing: A Case study for Turkey

Nüfusun yaşlanması, sosyal güvenlik planlarının sürdürülebilirliği açısından önemli etkiye sahiptir. Tartışma, demografik eğilimlerin ideal emeklilik yaşının belirlenmesine yansıtılıp yansıtılmaması veya nasıl yansıtılacağı üzerinedir. Çalışmada, nüfus yapısı ve ölümlülükte meydana gelen gelişmeler temel alınarak, nüfusun yaşlanması ölçülerinden geleneksel ve ileriye dönük olanlar kullanılarak ve farklı karar kriterleri karşılaştırılarak emeklilik yaşı belirlenmektedir. Sabit beklenen ömrü ve nesiller arası adaleti temel alan kritere göre emeklilik yaşı, sabit destek oranına nazaran daha yüksektir, zaman içinde dalgalanma gösterir ve kadınlarda erkeklere göre daha yüksektir. Önerilen yaşlar, 2010 yılı için daha az farklı olmakla birlikte genelde resmi emeklilik yaşından oldukça farklıdır. Yaşlanmayı farklı ölçme yöntemleri, yaşlılık tanımları ve farklı karar kriterleri her bir paydaşın rağbet edeceği değişen ideal emeklilik yaşını beraberinde getirmektedir. Yaştaki cinsiyetler arası farklar ile hali hazırdaki nüfus ve ölümlülük eğilimleri ise daha esnek olarak değerlendirilmelidir.

İdeal emeklilik yaşının belirlenmesi ve yaşlanmadaki gelişmeler: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme

Population ageing has important implications for the sustainability of social security schemes. Debate is on whether and how to include demographic trends in the determination of the ideal pension age. We determine the ideal pension age for Turkey, based on the developments taking place in both population structure and mortality, by examining conventional and prospective measures of population ageing, and by comparing different decision criteria. Proposed pension ages based on constant remaining life expectancy and intergenerational fairness are higher than those using constant support ratios, show fluctuations over time and are higher for the female than male population. The suggested pension ages differed strongly from the official ones, although less in 2010. The different measures, old-age definitions, and decision criteria result in different alternatives for the ideal pension age with differing popularity for different stakeholders. The observed sex differences and the on-going population and mortality trends demand flexibility.
PDF

___

  • Bennett, N. G. and S. Horiuchi (1981), “Estimating the Completeness of Death Registration in a Closed Population”, Population Index 47 (2): 207-21.
  • Blake, S. (2009), “Subnational Pat- terns of Population Ageing”, Population Trends 136: 43-63.
  • Bijak, J., D. Kupiszewska, M. Kupisze- wska, K. Saczuk and A. Kicinger (2007), “Population and Labour Force Projec- tions for 27 European Countries, 2002– 2052: Impact of International Migration on Population Ageing”, European Jour- nal of Population 23: 1-31.
  • Bongaarts, J. (2004), Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions, Population Council Working Papers, 2004, No.185.
  • Carone, G., D. Costello, N.D. Guardia, G. Mourre, B. Przywara and A. Salomaki (2005), “The Economic Impact of Ageing Populations in the EU25 Member States”,
  • European Commission, Directorate-Gen- eral For Economic and Financial Affairs, Economic Papers-Number 236. European Commission (2004), Offi- cial Journal of the European Union, 21/12/2004, L373/37, http://eurlex.eu- ropa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?ur i=OJ:L:2004:373:0037:0043:EN:PDF (15.11.2012).
  • European Commission (2006), Offi- cial Journal of the European Union, 26/7/2006, L204/23, http://eur-lex.eu- ropa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?ur i=OJ:L:2006:204:0023:0036:EN:PDF (15.11.2012).
  • European Commission (2009), Age- ing Report: Economic and Budget- ary Projections for the EU-27 Member States, 2008-2060, http://ec.europa.eu/ economy_finance/publications/publica- tion14992_en.pdf. (07.11.2012).
  • European Commission (2012), “Active Ageing”, Special Eurobarometer 378, Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, http:// ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ ebs/ebs_378_en.pdf (10.05.2012).
  • Eurostat (2011), Statistical Database “Population on 1 January: Structure indi- cators”, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/ portal/page/portal/population/data/data- base (08.03.2012).
  • Fuchs, R. V. (1984), “‘Though Much is Taken:’ Reflections on Aging, Health, and Medical Care”, NBER Working Paper Series; 1269.
  • Gavrilov, L.A. and P. Heuveline (2003), “Aging of Population”, In: Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll (eds.), The Ency- clopedia of Population, New York, 32-7.
  • Gjonca, A. (2006), “Training on Pre- paring a Life Table for Turkey”, Project Completion Report, Hifab International.
  • Golini, A. (2001), “Demographic Trends and Population Policies”, Futures 33: 27-41.
  • Grant, J., S. Hoorens, S. Sivadasan, M. van het Loo, J. DaVanzo, L. Hale, S. Gib- son and W., Butz (2004), “Low Fertility and Population Ageing: Causes, Conse- quences and Policy Options”, Rand Cor- poration, Santa Monica.
  • Haymer (2010), Construction of Turk- ish Life and Life Annuity Tables Project, http://www.haymer.org.tr/documents/ TRSH_2010_2312_k_e.xls. (6.11.2012).
  • Heligman, L. and J. H. Pollard (1980), “The age Pattern of Mortality”, The Jour- nal of the Institute of Actuaries, 107: 49- 80.
  • Hurd, M.D., J. P. Smith and J. M. Zissi- mopoulos (2004), “The Effects of Sub- jective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19: 761-775.
  • International Institute for Applied Sys- tems Analysis (2011), Press Briefing: Av- erage Remaining Lifetimes Can Increase As Human Populations Age, http://www. iiasa.ac.at/Admin/INF/PR/PR-05.06.08. html (16.07.2012).
  • International Social Security Associa- tion (2010), Demographic Changes and Social Security: Challenges and Oppor- tunities, World Social Security Forum, 30th ISSA General Assembly, Cape Town, http://www.issa.int/Resources/Confer- ence-Reports/Demographic-changes- and-social-security-Challenges-and-op- portunities (11.10.2012).
  • Janssen, F., J.P. Mackenbach and A.E. Kunst (2004), “Trends in old-age Mortal- ity in Seven European Countries, 1950- 1999”, Journal of Clinical Epidemiol- ogy, 57 (2): 203-216.
  • Kurek, S. (2007), “Population Ageing Research from a Geographical Perspec- tive-Methodological Approach”, Bulletin of Geography, 8: 29-49.
  • Lutz, W., S. Scherbov and W. Sanderson (2008), “The Coming Acceleration of Global Population Ageing”, Nature 451 (7): 716-9.
  • Marin, B. and A. Zaidi (2007), “Trends and Priorities of Ageing Policies in the UN-European Region”, Public Policy and Social Welfare, 32: 61-106.
  • OECD (2009), Pensions at a Glance 2009-Retirement-Income Systems in OECD Countries, OECD Publishing.
  • OECD (2011), Pensions at a Glance: Retirement-Income Systems in OECD and G-20 Countries, OECD Publish- ing, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/pension_ glance-2011-en.
  • Preston S.H., P. Heuveline and M. Guil- lot (2001), Demography, Measuring and Modelling Population Processes, Black- well Publishers: Oxford.
  • Robine, J. M. and J. P. Michel (2004), “Looking Frward to a General Theory on Population Ageing”, The Journals of Gerontology, 59A (6): 590-7.
  • Ryder, N.B. (1975), “Notes on Stationary Populations”, Population Index, 41 (1): 3-28.
  • Sanderson, W. C. and S. Scherbov (2005), “Average Remaining Lifetimes can In- crease as Human Populations Age”, Na- ture, 435 (9): 811-3.
  • Sanderson, W. C. and S. Scherbov (2007), “A New Perspective on Popula- tion Ageing”, Demographic Research, 16 (2): 27-58.
  • Sanderson, W. C. and S. Scherbov (2008), “Rethinking Age and Aging”, Population Bulletin, 63 (4): 1-16.
  • Shoven, J. B. (2007), “New Age Think- ing: Alternative Ways of Measuring Age, Their Relationship to Labor Force Participation, Goverment Policies and GDP”, NBER Working Paper Series; 13476: 1-22.
  • Shoven, J. B. and G. S. Goda (2008), “Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation”, NBER Working Paper Series; 14231: 1-29.
  • Social Security Institution (2007), Social Security Reform: New Approach Before Implementation [in Turkish], Social Se- curity Institution, Ankara.
  • Social Security Institution (2008), Social Insurance and Universal Health Insur- ance Law, Law-Nr.5510 [in Turkish], http://www.sgk.gov.tr/wps/portal/tr/mev- zuat/yururlukteki_mevzuat (24.09.2012).
  • Social Security Institution (2009), Statis- tical Yearbook 2008, http://www.sgk.gov. tr/wps/portal/!ut/p/c1/ (24.06.2012).
  • Social Security Institution (2010), Statis- tical Yearbook 2009, http://www.sgk.gov. tr/wps/portal/!ut/p/c1/ (21.10.2012).
  • Social Security Institution (2011a), Sta- tistical Yearbook 2010, Draft Unpub- lished Statistical Bulletin, Department of Actuary and Fund Management, Ankara.
  • Social Security Institution (2011b), Monthly Statistical Bulletin-June 2011, Publication No: 15, Department of Actu- ary and Fund Management, Ankara.
  • TurkStat (1977), 1970 Census of Popula- tion: Social and Economic Characteristics of Population, Turkish Statistical Institute, Publication Number: 756, Ankara.
  • TurkStat (1982), 1975 Census of Popula- tion: Social and Economic Characteristics of Population, Turkish Statistical Institute, Publication Number: 988, Ankara.
  • TurkStat (1984), 1980 Census of Popula- tion: Social and Economic Characteristics of Population, Turkish Statistical Institute, Publication Number: 1072, Ankara.
  • TurkStat (1989), 1985 Census of Popula- tion: Social and Economic Characteristics of Population, Turkish Statistical Institute, Publication Number: 1369, Ankara.
  • TurkStat (1993), 1990 Census of Popula- tion: Social and Economic Characteristics of Population, Turkish Statistical Institute, Publication Number: 1616, Ankara.
  • TurkStat (2003), 2000 Census of Popula- tion: Social and Economic Characteristics of Population, Turkish Statistical Institute, Publication Number: 2759, Ankara.
  • TurkStat (2010a), Address Based Popu- lation Registration System Population Census Results, http://www.turkstat. gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=6178 (04.06.2012).
  • TurkStat (2010b), Address Based Popu- lation Registration System Population Census Results, http://tuikapp.tuik.gov. tr/adnksdagitapp/adnks.zul (06.07.2012).
  • United Nations (2001), Replacement Mi- gration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations, ISBN 92-1-151362- 6, United Nations, New York.
  • United Nations (2003), Mortpak for Win- dows, United Nations Population Divi- son, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York.
  • United Nations (2009), World Population Ageing 2009, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York.
  • United Nations (2011a), Assumptions Underlying The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Divison, Popula- tion Database, http://esa.un.org/unpd/ wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2010_AS- SUMPTIONS_AND_VARIANTS.pdf (05.11.2012).
  • United Nations (2011b), World Popula- tion Prospects: The 2010 Revision, De- partment of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, CD-ROM Edition.
SOSYAL GÜVENLİK DERGİSİ-Cover
  • ISSN: 2146-4839
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2011
  • Yayıncı: SOSYAL GÜVENLİK KURUMU
Arşiv
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

İş-aile yaşamı çatışması ile başa çıkmada kullanılan bireysel ve kurumsal stratejilerin değerlendirilmesi

EMİNE ÖZMETE, Işıl EKER

Türk vatandaşlığından izinle çıkanların 3201 sayılı kanun çerçevesinde borçlanması

Birten DÖNMEZ, Gülen KIZILTAŞ

Hastane performansının ölçümünde PATH yöntemi

Dilaver DENGİLİMOĞLU, ŞÜKRÜ ANIL TOYGAR

Determination of ıdeal pension age and developments in ageing: A Case study for Turkey

İlker ŞİRİN, Fanny JANSSEN

İhaleli işlerde asgari işçilik prim farkından alt işverenin sorumluluğu

UFUK AYDIN

Kurumsal sosyal sorumluluğun değiştirdiği çalışma kavramı ve yeni bir çalışma alanı olarak sosyal girişimler

VOLKAN IŞIK