2008 REFORMU SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞE KATKI YAPIYOR MU?

Finansal sürdürülebilirliğe dair önemli kaygılardan dolayı Türkiye sosyal güvenlik sisteminde reforma gitmiştir. Bu sürecin son aşaması 2008’de gerçekleşmiş ve bağlama oranıyla prim oranında değişimleri içermiştir. Bu çalışma parametre değişikliklerinin sistemin finansal sürdürülebilirliğine ve tüketicilere etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analiz, bağlama oranı ve prim oranı değişikliklerine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışma, parametre değişikliklerinin ardışık nesiller modeli ile niceliksel analizini yaparak literatüre katkı yapmaktadır. Yapılan analiz bağlama ve prim oranlarının eş anlı düşürülmesinin bir reform tasarım hatası olduğunu ve bunun sistemin açıklarının kötüleşmesine etkisi olacağını işaret etmektedir. Tüketici üzerindeki etkilere dair temel bulgu ise, reform anında emekliliğe daha yakın olan çalışmaktaki bireylerin reformdan en olumsuz etkilenenler olduğu yönündedir. 

DOES THE 2008 REFORM CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINABILITY

Due to considerable financial sustainability concerns, Turkey has reformed her social security system. The last leg of this reform process took place in 2008 and included changes in replacement and contribution rates. This paper aims to analyse the impact of the parameter changes on financial sustainability of the system and the consumer well-being. Focus of the analysis is on the changes in the replacement rates and the contribution rates. The paper contributes by providing a complex quantitative analysis of the parameter changes through an OLG (overlapping generations) model. It is found that the simultaneous reduction of replacement and contribution rates is a reform design flaw and actually worsens the deficits of the system. One other finding is that the closer a person is to retirement at the time of the reform, the worse the impact of the reform is on the person.

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