Türkiye’nin Orta Gelir Tuzağı Problemine İlişkin Ampirik Bir Yorum

Bu çalışma, orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye’de bu tuzağa sebep olduğu düşünülen faktörler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya koyabilmek amacıyla oluşturulmuştur. Ampirik yoldan bu ilişkinin ortaya çıkartılmasının, bu yeni kavrama bilimsel katkıda bulunacağı ümit edilmektedir. Bundan hareketle, orta gelir tuzağı ile “yüksek teknoloji ihracatı” ve “eğitim için kamu harcamaları” arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Bu faktörlerin, üst orta gelir grubunda bir ülke olmasına rağmen uzun yıllardır Türkiye’nin içine düştüğü bu tuzaktan çıkması için gerekli belirleyiciler olduğu düşünülmüştür. 1983-2013 dönemi için yapılan zaman serisi analizleri Türkiye’nin, eğitim alanında kamu harcamalarına gerekli önemi verirse, orta gelir tuzağından çıkmasına yardımcı olacağını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Granger Nedensellik, Yüksek Teknoloji

An Empirical Remark about Middle Income Trap Problem for Turkey

This study has been performed to indicate the causality relationship between the middle income trap and the factors which are considered to be reasons for this trap in Turkey. It is expected that revealing this relationship in an empirical way will contribute scientifically to this new concept. Starting from this point of view, the relationship between middle income trap, high technology export and public spending on education has been researched. It is thought that these factors are necessary indicators for Turkey to overcome the trap even though it has been a country of upper middle income group. Time serial analysis made for the years 1983-2013 suggests that Turkey can overcome the middle-income trap if it attaches enough importance for public spending on education.

Keywords:

Middle Income Trap Granger-Causality, High Technology Export, Public Spending on Education.,

PDF

___

Akaike, H. (1969), “Fitting Autoregressive Models for Prediction”, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 21 (1), p. 243-247.
Cai, F. (2012), “Is There a ‘Middle‐income Trap’? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China”, China & World Economy, 20 (1), p. 49-61.
Dabus, C., Tohme, F., & Caraballo, M. A. (2016), “A middle income trap in a small open economy: Modeling the Argentinean case”, Economic Modelling, 53, 436-444.
Eğilmez, M.(2014), Orta Gelir Tuzağından Nasıl Çıkılır?, http://www.cnbce.com/yorum-ve-analiz/dr-mahfi-egilmez/orta-gelirtuzagindan-nasil-cikilir, 15.01.2015
Eichengreen, B. , Park, D., & Shin, K. (2013), “ Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-income Trap”, Nber Working Paper Series, 18673, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55 (2), p.251-276.
Felipe, J., Abdon, A. & Kumar, U. (2012), “Tracking the middle-income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?”, Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper, 715 .
Flechtner, S. & Panther, S. (2013), “Towards a Political Economy of the Middle-income Trap”, EAEPE Annual Conference in Paris.
Gill, I. & Kharas, H. (2007), “An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth”, World Bank Publications.
Granger, C.W.J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric and Cross-sectional Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), p. 424-438.
Hsiao, C. (1981), “Autoregressive Modeling and Money Income Causality Detection”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(1), p. 85-106.
Kanchoochat, V., Intarakumnerd, P. (2014), “Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-income Trap through the East and Southeast Asian Experience”, Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development, No. 04.
Phillips, P.C.B. & Perron, P. (1988),“Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), p. 335-346.
Sjö, B. (2008), Testing for unit roots and cointegration, https://www.iei.liu.se/nek/risk-teori-7-5h730a07/labbar/1.233753/ dfdistab7b.pdf.(accessed: 20 March 2015).
Staehr, K. (2015), “Economic growth and convergence in the Baltic States: Caught in a middle-income trap?” Intereconomics, 50 (5), 274-280.
World Bank (2015), http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lendinggroups, 17.02.2015
Xon, J.G.D., Hoong, L.Y., Ting, L.T., Chin, T.K. & Kuan, W.L. (2013),“Middle-income Trap: From the Perspective of Economic Growth”, University Tunku Abdul Rahman.
Yang, H.Y. (2000),” A Note on the Causal Relationship Between Energy and GDP in Taiwan”, Energy Economics, (22), p. 309-317.
Yılmaz, G. (2014), “Turkish Middle Income Trap and Less Skilled Human Capital” , Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper, No. 14/30.