İktisadi Beklentiler ve Karar Almada Deneyimsel ve Bilişsel Süreçler

Bireyin beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma sürecinde beynin içsel ve dışsal bilgi ve tecrübeleri nasıl işlediği ve hangi faktörlerin bu süreçleri etkilediği önemli bir tartışmadır. Bu bağlamda bireyin duygular ve rasyonel muhakeme yetisi ile beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma süreci arasındaki ilişki önemlidir. Ana akım iktisat yazınında beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma sürecinin bilişsel yönü değerlendirilerek yerleşik teoriler oluşturulmuştur fakat bu tip bir yaklaşım duyguların ve duygulanımın sezgisel ve deneyimsel sistemlerle ilişkisini ortaya koymamaktadır. Bu açıdan psikoloji, bilişsel sinirbilim ve davranışsal iktisat yazınında akıl ve duygu metaforları ile ifade edilen deneyimsel sistem ile rasyonel sistem arasındaki ilişkinin analiz edilmesi ve iktisat yazınına daha yoğun bir şekilde dahil edilmesi gereklidir. Psikoloji yazınında uygulanan ikili süreç teorileri, bireyin, bilgi işleme ve düşünme sistemleri üzerine çalışmaktadır. Beyindeki rasyonel muhakeme yetisi ile bilgi işlemenin deneyimsel süreci arasındaki ayrım ve bağlantının ikili süreç teorileri tarafından ortaya konan doğası gösteriyor ki iktisadi yazında ele alınan yerleşik beklenti ve karar alma teorileri bu süreçlerin doğasını anlama ve analiz etmeye yeterli değildir. Bu çalışmada iktisadi yazındaki bahsedilen bu önemli eksiliği giderebilmek için, duyguların, doğası gereği, beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma sürecinde, deneyimsel sürecin rasyonel sistem ile birlikte çalıştığı sonucuna ilgili literatürden yararlanılarak varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Beklentiler, İkili Süreç Teorileri, Akıldışılık, Duygu, Duygulanım

Cognitive and Experiential Processes in Economic Expectations and Decision-Making

In the process of forming expectations and decision-making, how brain processes internal and external information and experiences and the factors are affecting these processes are an important discussion. In this context, the relationship between an agent’s emotions and rational reasoning ability and that between expectation formation and decision-making process are important. In the mainstream economic literature, expectation and decision-making theories are formed by perspectives reliant on the cognitive aspects of these processes. However, such perspectives do not explain the relationship of emotions and affect with intuitive and experiential systems. In this respect, the relationship between the experiential system and the rational system must be analyzed. They are expressed in metaphors of mind and emotion in psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and behavioral economics literature, which should be included more intensively in economic methodology. The dual-process theories applied in the field of psychology work on the information processing and thinking systems of an individual. The distinction and interdependence between the rational reasoning of the brain and the experiential process of information processing, especially those of the dual-process theories, show that the framework of economic expectations and established theories of decisionmaking is insufficient to understand the process of forming those processes. To overcome this important deficiency in economic literature, it is concluded with the help of related literature that emotions affect the expectation and decision-making formation and that the experiential process in the brain works in a manner that works together collaboration with the rational system.

Keywords:

Expectations, Dual-Process Theories, Irrationality. Emotions, Affect,

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