Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modellerinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Thomas Cook Örneği

Bu araştırmanın amacı, finans teorisinde en fazla kabul gören finansal başarısızlık tahmin modellerinin geçerliliğini, 23 Eylül 2019 tarihinde iflas ettiğini açıklayan Thomas Cook şirketi üzerinde analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla, şirketin 2009-2018 yılları arasındaki finansal durum tabloları, ayrıntılı gelir tabloları ve nakit akış tabloları kullanılarak finansal başarısızlık risk olasılıkları Altman Z Skor, Springate, Fulmer, Kanada Skor ve Ohlson O-Skor modellerine göre hesaplanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda Thomas Cook şirketinin bütün tahmin modellerine göre analiz döneminde finansal başarısızlık riski taşıdığı belirlenmiştir. Dolayısıyla analizde kullanılan bütün finansal başarısızlık tahmin modellerinin şirketin iflasını 2019 yılından önceki yıllarda %100 olarak doğru tahmin ettiği saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Başarısızlık, Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modelleri, Turizm Sektörü, Thomas Cook.

Analysis of the Validity of Financial Failure Predicting Models: The Case of Thomas Cook

The purpose of this study is to analyze the validity of financial failure prediction models, which are the most widely accepted in finance theory, on the Thomas Cook company, who declared that it was bankrupt on September 23, 2019. For this purpose, the financial failure risk probabilities of the company between 2009-2018 years were calculated using Altman Z Score, Springate, Fulmer, Canada Score and Ohlson O-Score models by using statements of financial position, income statements and cash flow statements. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that Thomas Cook company carries the risk of financial failure in the analysis period. Therefore, it was determined that all financial failure prediction models used in the analysis predicted the company's bankruptcy as 100% in the years before 2019.

Keywords:

Financial Failure, Financial Failure Predicting Models, Tourism Sector, Thomas Cook.,

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