Can unemployment be cured by economic growth and foreign direct investment?

Bu çalışma VAR modeli kullanılarak doğrudan yabancı sermaye ve (FDI), ihracat (EX), işsizlik (UR) ve gayrı safı milli hasıla arasındaki ilişkileri dönemlik (2000:1-2007:4) veri kullanarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Sistemde iki eşbütünleşik seri bulunmuştur. Bu uzun dönem ilişkinin varlığını ispatlamaktadır. Ancak, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının istihdamı arttırmadığı ortaya konmuştur. İhracattaki varyasyonlar GDP üzerindeki etkisi her ne kadar pozitifse de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Bu durum ihracat büyümeli ekonomik modeli desteklememektedir. Son olarak GDP gelişmeler anılan dönemde işsizliği azaltıcı yönde bir etki yaratmamışlardır.

This study applies the VAR technique of variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis to investigate various interrelationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), exports (EX), unemployment (UR) and gross domestic product (GDP) in the case of Turkey over the period 2000:1 to 2007:4. We find that there are two cointegrating vectors in the system, indicating there is long run relationship. Our findings show that FDI did not have any contribution to reduce the unemployment rate in Turkey. Variations in EX have a positive impact on GDP but they are insignificant. Therefore, this study does not support the export led economic growth model. Variation in GDP does not reduce the unemployment rate either.

___

Acikalin, Süleyman (2007), "Time Series Analysis of Relationship between FDI in Turkey and Selected Macroeconomic Indicators", Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, March 2007 Anadolu University, Turkey.

Bailey D.; N. Driffield (2006), "Industrial Policy, FDI and Employment: Still Missing a Strategy", Published online: 26 December 2006 Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2007.

Braconier H.; K. Ekholm (2000), "Swedish Multinationals and Competition from High and Low-Wage Locations", Review of International Economics, 8, 448-61.

Brady D.; M. Wallace (2000), "Spatialization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor Outcomes in the American States, 1978-1996", Social Forces, Vol. 79(1) 67-105.

Carsten, Eckel (2003), "Fragmentation, Efficiency-Seeking FDI, and Employment", Review of International Economics, 11(2) 317-331.

Chen T.J.; Ku Y.H. (2000), "The effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Firm Growth: the Case of Taiwan's Manufactures", Japan World Econ, 12:153-172.

Dickey, D.A. ; W.A. Fuller (1979), "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp.427-431.

Engle R.F.; Granger C.W.J. (1987), "Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, Testing", Econometrica, 55:410-421.

Johansen, S. (1988), "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors." Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control, 12:231-254.

Johansen S,; Juselius K. (1990), "Maximum likelihood estimation and inferences on cointegration with applications to the demand for money." Oxford Bulletin Economics Statistics, 52:169-210.

Michael Ka-yiu Fung; Jinli Zeng; Lijin Zhu (1999), "Foreign Capital, Urban Unemployment, and Economic Growth", Review of International Economics, 7(4) 651-664.

Sims, C.A. (1980), "Macroeconomics and Reality", Econometrica, 48 (1):1-48.

Zhao, L. (1998), "The impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Wages and Employment", Oxford Economic Papers, 50, 284-301.