Ortadoğu’da Askeri Denge ve İttifaklar: I. Dünya Savaşı’ndan Yeni Dünya Düzeni’ne Bir Süreç Analizi (1918-2010)

Günümüz Uluslararası İlişkiler disiplini için en çok ilgi çeken bölgelerden birisi olan Ortadoğu’nun güvenlik atmosferine ve askeri dengesine dair Türkçe ve İngilizce yazın dizinde hala önemli boşluklar bulunmaktadır. Bu durum özellikle Türkçe literatürde daha elzem bir durumdayken bu çalışma var olan bu boşluğun belli bir düzeyde de olsa giderilmesi hedefini taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Ortadoğu askeri dengesinin Osmanlı’nın yıkılışı sonrasında hangi parametreler üzerinden oluştuğu ve bu dengenin hangi devletlerce normlaştırılmaya ve hangi devletlerce değiştirilmeye çalışıldığı analiz edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, makale içerisinde sunulan dönemselleştirme dahilinde, savunma harcamalarını, askeri çatışmaları, bölgesel ittifakları ve küresel iş birliklerini bağımsız değişkenler olarak ele alınmaktadır. Bu parametreler vasıtasıyla da Ortadoğu askeri dengesinin seyri ve yaşanan değişiklikler açıklanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Bu süreç analizi sayesinde Ortadoğu’da son asırda oluşan ittifaklardan yola çıkılarak bir bölgesel ittifak tipolojisine ulaşılmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu makalenin gidermeye çalıştığı en asli yazın dizin boşluğu bölgenin modern askeri tarihini bir arada sunan tarihsel çalışmaların yoksunluğudur. Bu anlamda makale çatışmaların, savunma harcamalarının, bölgesel ittifakların ve küresel iş birliklerinin askeri dengeye olan etkisine odaklanırken ticaret, güvenlik dışında kalan politik süreçler vb. değişkenleri çalışmanın ölçeğini sınırlandırmak adına kontrol değişkenleri olarak araştırmanın dışında bırakmıştır. Bu soyutlaştırma ve kısıtlamanın temel amacı bu makalenin Ortadoğu askeri dengesi üzerinde yoğunlaşmasını sağlamak ve Ortadoğu güvenliğini sadece bu boyutuyla ele alarak çalışmanın fizibilitesini arttırmaktır. Çalışmanın en önemli üç bulgudan ilki bölge askeri dengesinde Soğuk Savaş sürecinin ve küresel rekabetin izdüşümünün sahip olduğu şekillendirici etkidir. İkincisi, Arap-İsrail sorununun süregelen çözümsüzlük vasfı ile bir meydan okuma aracına dönüşmüş olmasıdır. Son bulgu ise bölgedeki ittifakların temel anlamda üç parametre üzerinden şekillendiğidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ortadoğu, ittifaklar, askeri denge, Arap Soğuk Savaşı, güvenlik

Military Balance and Alliances in the Middle East: A Process Tracing between the WWI and the New World Order (1918-2010)

There are several lacunas in both Turkish and English literature regarding security and the military balance in the Middle East which has become a hotbed for International Relations discipline. This study forms the first part of a two-staged analysis including the first stage as the period between the WWI and the Cold War’s end whereas the second state is the period between the establishment of the New World Order and the Arap Uprisings. This article utilizes the defense expenditures, military conflicts, regional alliances and global alignments as independent variables within the framework presented in the study. Through these variables, the course of the military balance in the Middle East and the causes behind trend swings is attempted to be explicated. A complementary part of this study indicates the alliance typology for the Middle East based on the alliances formed in the last century. The utmost aim of this study is to present an analysis on the military developments and the history of military balance in a methodological summarizing format. The impact of economy and non-security political processes are omitted as control variables in terms of both feasibility and maintaining the focus in the military domain. The main findings of this study are that the projection of the international political competetion plays a transformative role in the region expecially during the Cold War; the prolonged Arab-Israeli conflict provided a platform for the Middle Eastern states to challange the status quo and the alliances are formed mostly on three certain criteria.

Keywords:

Middle East, alliances, military balance, Arap Cold War, security,

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