Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Kalkınma Seviyesine Göre Belirsizliğin Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Finansal kalkınma düzeyi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, uzun yıllardır tartışmaların odağı halindedir. Ülke belirsizliğin makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkisi ise son yılların ilgi gören konularının başında gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye örneklemi kullanılarak, finansal kalkınma ve ekonomik büyüme düzeyine göre ülke belirsizliğinin etksi ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Ocak 1998- Aralık 2019 zaman aralığındaki dönem için çeyreklerden oluşan zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif modelden (ARDL) faydalanılarak, ilgili değişkenlerin uzun ve kısa dönem etkileri araştırılmıştır. Sonuçlarımıza göre kısa vadede, belirsizliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, finansal kalkınma düzeyi arttıkça azalmaktadır. Öte yandan, ekonomik büyümenin düzeyi, belirsizliğin finansal kalkınmaya etkisi üzerinde her hangi bir değişikliğe neden olmamaktadır. Son olarak, Türkiye uzun vadede talep-takibi davranışı gösterirken, kısa vadede arz-liderliği davranışı sergilemektedir. Bu bulgu, Türkiye’nin finansal sisteminin uzun vadede üretken yatırımları belirlemekte ve fonlamakta sorun yaşadığı şeklinde yorumlanabilir. Makalemizin sonuçları, finansal sektörün gelişmişliğinin ve kalitesinin, belirsizliğin olumsuz etkilerini azaltmadaki rolünü göstererek, politika yapıcılara önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Impact of Uncertainty Depending on the Economic Growth and Financial Development Level: The Case of Turkey

The relationship between financial development and economic growth has been the focus of discussions for many years. On the other hand, the impact of country uncertainty on macroeconomic variables is one of the most popular topics of recent years. The purpose of this study is to empirically examine whether the impact of uncertainty on economic growth and financial development is changed according to the level of financial and economic development. As a sample quarterly time series data between January 1998 and December 2019 for Turkey were employed. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the long and short-term effects of the relevant variables were investigated. According to our results, the adverse effects of uncertainty on economic growth decrease in the short-run as the level of financial development increases. On the other hand, the level of economic growth does not cause any changes on the impact of uncertainty on financial development. Finally, Turkey shows demand-following behavior in the long term, while exhibiting supply-leading behavior in the short term. This finding can be interpreted as Turkey's financial system faces problems to determine the productive investments and funding them in the long-run. The results of our article provide valuable insight to policymakers by showing the role of the development and quality of the financial sector in reducing the negative effects of uncertainty.

Keywords:

uncertainty, financial development, economic growth ARDL,

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Kaynakça Bilgisi / Citation Information
Uğurlu Yıldırım, E. (2021). Ekonomik büyüme ve finansal kalkınma seviyesine göre belirsizliğin etkisi: Türkiye örneği. OPUS–Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 17(37), 4429-4449 DOI: 10.26466/opus.780239