Türkiye’deki Kuşaklar Arası Gelir Hareketliliği

Bu çalışma, hareketlilik korelasyonlarının tutarlı tahminine ilişkin konulara odaklanarak kuşaklar arası gelir hareketliliği literatürünün kapsamlı bir incelemesini sunmaktadır. Tartışmalar ışığında, Türkiye'deki kuşaklar arası gelir hareketliliği “En Küçük Kareler” ve “Araç Değişken” tahmin stratejileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Örneklem Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketlerinden alınmıştır ve 2003 ile 2011 arasındaki yılların herhangi birinde aynı hanede yaşayan pozitif bir ücret veya kazanç belirten baba-oğul ve baba-kız çiftlerini içerir. En Küçük Kareler ve Araç Değişken tahmin stratejilerinin gerçek popülasyon hareketliliği korelasyonunu aşağıdan ve yukarıdan bağladığı gösterilmiştir; bu nedenle, kuşaklar arası hareketliliğin tutarlı bir aralık tahmini ile sonuçlanır. Popülasyondaki gerçek hareketlilik korelasyonlarının erkek çocuklar için (0,10, 0,51) ve kız çocuklar için (0,17, 1,00) aralığında olduğu tahmin edilmektedir. Bulunan büyük hareketlilik korelasyonları, iki nesil arasında yer alanzararlı gelir bağını kırmak için devlet müdahalesini gerektirebilir.

Intergenerational Income Mobility in Turkey

This study presents a thorough review of the literature on intergenerational income mobility with a focus on the issues regarding consistent estimation of mobility correlations. In the light of the discussions, the intergenerational income association in Turkey is analyzed using OLS and IV estimation strategies. The sample is extracted from Household Budget Surveys and includes father-son and father-daughter pairs with either non-zero wages or non-zero earnings living in the same household in any of the years between 2003 and 2011. OLS and IV estimation strategies are shown to bound the true population mobility correlation from below and above; hence, resulting in a consistent interval estimate of intergenerational mobility. The true mobility correlations in the population are estimated to be in the range of (0.10, 0.51) for sons and (0.17, 1.00) for daughters. The large mobility correlations may call for government intervention to break the harmful income link across generations.

___

  • Acosta, Pablo. 2006. “Labor supply, school attendance, and remittances from international migration: the case of El Salvador.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3903.
  • Atkinson, A. B., Maynard, A. K., and Trinder, C. G. 1983. “Parents and Children: Incomes in Two Generations.” London: Heinemann.
  • Baker, Michael. 1990. “Essays on Unemployment Spell Duration and Life Cycle Earnings.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Michigan.
  • Behrman, Jere R., and Paul Taubman. “Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in the United States: Some Estimates and a Test of Becker's Intergenerational Endowments Model.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 67, no. 1 (1985): 144-51.
  • Behrman, Jere R., and Rosenweig, Mark R. 2002. “Does Increasing Women’s Schooling Raise the Schooling of the Next Generation?” The American Economic Review, 92(1): 323-334.
  • Chung, Ching-Fan and Goldberger, Arthur S. 1984. “Proportional Projections in Limited Dependent Variable Models.” Econometrica. 52: 531-4.
  • Corcoran, Mary, Gordon, Roger, Laren, Deborah and Solon, Gary. 1992. “The Association Between Men’s Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins.” Journal of Human Resources.
  • Dearden, Lorraine, Machin, Stephen and Reed, Howard, (1997), “Intergenerational Mobility in Britain”, Economic Journal, 107, issue 440, p. 47-66.
  • Goldberger, Arthur S. 1981. “Linear Regression After Selection.” Journal of Econometrics, 15: 357-66.
  • Greene, William H. 1990. “Econometric Analysis.” New York: Macmillan.
  • MacDonald, Glenn M. And Robinson, Chris. 1985. “Cautonary Tails about Arbitrary Deletion of Observations; or, Throwing the Variance Out with the Bathwater.” Journal of Labor Economics, April 1985, 3: 124-52.
  • Mayer, Susan E. 2010. “Revisiting an Old Question: How Much Does Parental Income Affect Child Outcomes?” Focus, 27(2): 21-26.
  • Menchik, Paul L. 1979. “Inter-generational Transmission of Inequality: An Empirical Study of Wealth Mobility.” Economica, 46(184): 349-362.
  • Sewell, William H. And Hauser, Robert M. 1975. “Education, Occupation, and Earnings: Achievement in the Early Career.” New York: Academic Press.
  • Shea, John. 2000. “Does Parents’ Money Matters?” Journal of Public Economics, 77: 155-184.
  • Solon, Gary. 1992. “Intergenerational Mobility in the United States.” The American Economic Review, 82(3): 393-408.
  • Solon, Gary, et al. “A Longitudinal Analysis of Sibling Correlations in Economic Status.” The Journal of Human Resources, vol. 26, no. 3, 1991, pp. 509–534.
  • Zimmerman, David J. 1992. “Regression Toward Mediocrity in Economic Stature.” The American Economic Review, 82(3): 409-429.