KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİ ORTA-GELİR TUZAĞINDA MI?: GELİR YAKINSAMASI VE PANEL VERİ ANALİZİNE DAYALI AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME

Büyüme performansları, çok az ülkenin kişi başına gelir açısından orta gelir grubundan yüksek gelir grubuna erişebildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Gelir grupları arasındaki geçişin katı olması, Orta-Gelir Tuzağı (OGT) bağlamındaki tartışmaların önem kazanmasına yol açmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı makro ekonomik özellikleri benzerlik gösteren Brezilya, Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Hindistan ve Türkiye’den oluşan Kırılgan Beşli için OGT’nin varlığını test etmek ve OGT’den uzaklaşılması için politika önerileri sunmaktır. Bu amaca paralel olarak çalışmada 1960-2015 dönemi için gelir yakınsaması testi ve 1960-2012 dönemi için Kırılgan Beşli için iktisadi büyümenin belirleyicilerini açıklamak için uygulanan panel veri analizinden oluşan iki farklı test prosedürü uygulanmıştır. Gelir yakınsama testi sadece Brezilya’nın orta-gelir tuzağında olduğunu; panel veri sonuçları ise Kırılgan Beşli için GSYİHKB ile üçüncül okullaşma oranı, reel efektif döviz kuru, brüt sermaye yatırımları, katma değerli sanayi üretimi, dış ticaret haddi ve katma değerli tarımsal üretim arasında aynı yönlü ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla söz konusu bağımsız değişkenleri destekleyici politikalar, OGT’den uzaklaşmak için önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Orta-Gelir Tuzağı, Kırılgan Beşli, Panel Veri Analizi, Gelir Yakınsaması, Türkiye

ARE FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP?: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION BASED ON INCOME CONVERGENCE AND PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

The growth performances of countries demonstrate that very few countries reach the higher income group from middle income, in terms of per capita income. The rigidity of the transition between income groups has led to the debate of the middle-income trap (MIT) concept gaining importance. The main goal of current study is to analyze the existence of MIT for the Fragile Five countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey) and provide some policy recommendations for moving away from MIT. In the current study, two different test procedures, consisting of the income convergence test procedure, and the panel data analysis applied to determine the factors affecting the economic growth of the countries examined, were applied. The income convergence test reveals the only country in MIT is Brazil. On the other hand the results demonstrate a positive and statistically significant relationship between the GDPPC and tertiary school enrollment, real effective exchange rate, gross capital investments, industry value added, agriculture value added and terms of trade and for the Fragile Five. Therefore, policies that support these variables are important to move away from MIT.

Keywords:

Middle-Income Trap, Fragile Five, Panel Data Analysis, Income Convergence, Turkey,

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