Testing for structural change in the bilateral trade elasticities of Turkey

Bu çalışma Türkiye 'nirı temel ticari ortakları ile gerçekleştirdiği çift yönlü dış ticaret esnekliğini Gregory ve Hansen (GH) yaklaşımıyla incelemektedir. Bu nedenle, GH yaklaşımı bilinmeyen bir zamanda yapısal kırık ihtimalini modele dahil ederek uzun dönemde, çift yönlü ihracat ve ithalat talebi fonksiyonlarındaki değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşik ilişki bulmuştur. Ticaret talebi döviz kuru esnekliği ile gelir esnekliğinin 1982-2007 yıllarını kapsayan ampirik sonuçları sunulmuş ve tartışılmıştır.

Türkiye'nin iki taraflı ticaret esnekliklerindeki yapısal değişimin test edilmesi

This paper estimates the bilateral trade equations of Turkey and its major trading countries by using the Gregory and Hansen procedure. We allowed for a structural break at an unknown date within the Gregory and Hansen (GH) framework and obtained a cointegrating relationship especially between variables in the export and import demand equations at the bilateral level. The empirical analysis of the exchange rate and income elasticity of trade demand, over the period 1982-2007, is presented and discussed.

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