Muharrem AFŞAR, Emrah DOĞAN, Başak ÖZARSLAN DOĞAN

YÜKSEK JEOPOLİTİK RİSK, TÜRKİYE'NİN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARINI SINIRLIYOR MU?

Ülkeler arasındaki sermaye transferlerinin küreselleşme ile birlikte hız kazanması, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırımların önemini arttırmıştır. Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, sermaye yetersizliği sorunu ekonomik büyümeyi sağlayacak yatırımların önünde önemli bir engel oluşturmaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) bu bağlamda, sermaye yetersizliğinin yarattığı olumsuzlukların giderilmesinde destekleyici bir öneme sahiptir. Bir ülkeye yönelik doğrudan yabancı yatırımların birçok belirleyicisi bulunmaktadır. Bunlardan birisi de ülkenin jeopolitik risk düzeyidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1994- 2018 döneminde, ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile jeopolitik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca jeopolitik riskin yanı sıra, doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkileyen reel döviz kuru, toplam iş gücü, reel GSYH ve tasarruf oranları da analize dahil edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, jeopolitik risk ile toplam işgücü DYY üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahipken; reel GSYH, reel döviz kuru ve tasarruf oranları ise DYY üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Jeopolitik Risk, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, ARDL

DOES HIGHER GEOPOLITICAL RISK LIMITS TURKISH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ?

The acceleration of capital transfers between countries after globalization has increased the importance of foreign direct investments in developing countries. Lack of capital in developing countries such as Turkey, constitute obstacles to investment. In this context, foreign direct investments that will come to the country are important in terms of eliminating the negativities caused by the lack of capital. Foreign direct investments are affected by many factors. One of them is the country's geopolitical risk. In this study, it is aim to investigate the impact of geopolitical risk on foreign direct investment in Turkey by using ARDL Bound Test for the 1998-2018 period. In addition to the geopolitical risk, real exchange rate, labor force, real GDP and savings that affect foreign direct investments were also included in the study. According to the analysis re-sults obtained, while geopolitical risk and labor force had a negative effect on FDI; real GDP, real exchange rate and savings have and positive effect on FDI.

Keywords:

Geopolitical Risk, Foreign Direct Investment, ARDL,

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