Murat BELKE, Süleyman BOLAT, Abdulnasser HATEMİ-J

AKDENİZ ÜLKELERİNDE TURİZMİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: SAKLI PANEL EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTİNDEN KANITLAR

Turizmin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, dünya çapında araştırmacıların ve politika yapıcıların dikkatini çekmektedir. Hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan birçok ülke, temel amacı olan ekonomik büyümeyi arttırmak amacıyla turizm endüstrisini geliştirmek için sistematik olarak önemli stratejiler ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Hatemi-J (2020a, 2020b) tarafından geliştirilen saklı panel eşbütünleşme ve asimetrik panel nedensellik testlerini kullanarak 1995-2017 örneklem dönemini kapsayan on dört Akdeniz ülkesinden oluşan bir panel için ekonomik büyüme ve turizm arasındaki potansiyel asimetrik etkileşimini test etmektir. Ampirik bulgular, panel sistemimizde gerçekten asimetrik etkiler olduğunu göstermektedir. Turizmdeki gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, turizmdeki buna karşılık gelen düşüşün büyüme üzerindeki etkisine kıyasla mutlak olarak daha güçlüdür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Turizm, Ekonomik Büyüme, Akdeniz Ülkeleri, Saklı Panel Eşbütünleşme, Asimetrik Panel Nedensellik

THE IMPACT OF TOURISM ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES: EVIDENCES FROM HIDDEN PANEL COINTEGRATION TEST

The effect of tourism on economic growth is capturing the attention of researchers and policy makers worldwide. Many countries, both developed and developing ones, are systematically putting forward crucial strategies in order to promote their tourism industry with the main goal of achieving enhanced economic growth. Our main objective is to test for the potential asymmetric interaction between economic growth and tourism for a panel consisting of fourteen Mediterranean countries that covers the sample period 1995-2017 using hidden panel cointegration and asymmetric panel causality tests as developed by Hatemi-J (2020a; 2020b). Our empirical investigations indicate that there are indeed asymmetric impacts within our panel system. The impact of an increase in tourism on economic growth is stronger in the absolute terms compared to the impact of a corresponding decrease in tourism on growth.

Keywords:

Tourism, Economic Growth, Mediterranean Countries, Hidden Panel Cointegration, Asymmetric Panel Causality,

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