Kurumlar vergisi oranındaki değişikliğin hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi

Çalışmanın amacı, kurumlar vergisinde indirim öngören açıklamanın hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesidir. Çalışmanın örneklemini 2004 yılında en fazla kurumlar vergisi tahakkuk ettirilen on şirket arasından verisi derlenen beş şirket oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada, olay çalışması yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Bu çerçevede, 29/11/2005 tarihinde yapılan kurumlar vergisi indirimi açıklaması olay günü olarak belirlenmiş ve buna bağlı olarak olay penceresi olay gününün beş gün öncesi ve beş gün sonrası dikkate alınarak oluşturulmuştur. Analiz sonuçları, kurumlar vergisi indirimi açıklamasının olay gününde hisse senedi getirilerinde anormal bir tepkiye neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre İMKB yarı güçlü formda etkin bir piyasa olarak değerlendirilebilir.

Investigating the impact of the change in corporate tax rate on stock returns

Aim of this study is to investigate the impact of deduction in corporate tax announcement on stock returns. The sample of the study is composed of five companies, of which data is collected among ten companies that were accrued the highest corporate tax in 2004. Event study method is employed in the study. In this manner, corporate tax deduction announcement made on November 29th 2005 is determined as event day and event window is constructed by establishing five days before and after the event day. Analysis results suggest that stock returns react significantly to corporate tax deduction announcement on the event day. In this manner, ISE would be accepted as a semi-strong form efficient market.

___

Armağan R. (2007), “Türkiye’de Gelir ve Kurumlar Vergisi Oranlarında İndirimin Vergi Gelirleri Üzerine Etkileri”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(3), 227-252.

Aharony, J. ve Swary, I. (1980), “Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders' Returns: An EmpiricalAnalysis”, Journal of Finance, 35(1), 1-12.

Amromin, G., Harrison, P. ve Sharpe, S. (2008), “How did the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut Affect Stock Prices?” Financial Management, 37(4), 625-646.

Auerbach, A.J. ve Hassett, K.A. (2005), “The 2003 Dividend Tax Cuts and the Value of the Firm: An Event Study” NBER Working Paper, No:11449.

Ayers, B.C., Cloyd, C.B. ve Robinson, J.R. (1993), “The Effect of Shareholder- Level Dividend Taxes on Stock Prices: Evidence from the Revenue Reconciliation Act of 1993”, Accounting Review, 77(4), 933-947.

Ball, C.A. ve Torous, W.N. (1988), “Investigating Security Price Performance in the Presence of Event-date Uncertainity”, Journal of Financial Economics, 22, 123-153.

Banz, R.W. (1981), “The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks”, Journal of Financial Economics, 9, 3-18.

Basu, S. (1983), “The Relationship Between Earnings’ Yield, Market Value and Return for NYSE Common Stocks”, Journal of Financial Economics, 12, 129-156.

Bhandari, L.C. (1988), “Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Finance, 43(2), 507-528.

Binder, J.J. (1998), “The Event Study Methodology Since 1969”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 11, 111-137.

Blandón, J.G., Blasco, M.M. ve Bosch, J.A. (2011), “Ex-Dividend Day Returns when Dividend and Capital Gains are Taxed at the Same Rate”, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 61(2), 140-152.

Bodie, Z., Kane, A. ve Marcus, A.J. (1999), Investments (Fourth Edition), Singapur: McGrawHill.

Brealey, R.A., Myers, S.C. ve Allen, F. (2011), Principles of Corporate Finance (Tenth Edition), A.B.D.: McGrawHill.

Bris, A. (2005), “Do Insider Trading Laws Work?” European Financial Management, 11(3):267-312.

Brown, S.J. ve Warner, J.B. (1980), Measuring Security Price Performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 205-258.

Brown, S.J. ve Warner, J.B. (1985), “Using Daily Stock Returns The Case of Event Studies”, Journal of Financial Economics, 14, 3-31.

Chan, L.K.C., Hamao, Y. ve Lakonishok, J. (1991), “Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan”, Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1739-1764.

Chetty, R., Rosenberg, J. ve Saez, E. (2005), “The Effects of Taxes on Market Responses to Dividend Announcements and Payments: What can We Learn from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut?”, NBER Working Paper, No:11452.

Cook, T.J. ve Rozeff, M.S. (1984), “Size and Earnings/Price Ratio Anomalies: One Effect or Two?”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 19(4), 449-466.

De Bondt, W.F.M. ve Thaler, R. (1985), “Does the Stock Market Overreact?”, Journal of Finance, 40(3),793-805.

Dhaliwal, D., Krull, L. ve Li, Z.O. (2007), “Did the 2003 Tax Act Reduce the Cost of Equity Capital?”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 43, 121-150.

Elton, E.J., Gruber, M.J., Brown, S.J. ve Goetzmann, W.N. (2007), Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis (Seventh Edition), USA: John Wiley&Sons.

Erginay, A. (1995), Vergi Hukuku, Savaş Yayınları, Ankara.

Fama, E.F. (1965), “Random Walks in Stock Market Prices”, Financial Analysts Journal, 21(5), 55-59.

Fama, E.F. (1970), “Efficent Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.

Fama, E.F. (1991), “Efficent Capital Markets: II”, Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1575-1617.

Fama, E.F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M.C. ve Roll, R. (1969), “The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information”, International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.

Fama, E.F. ve French, K.R. (1992), “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns”, Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.

Fama, E.F. ve French, K.R. (1995), “Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns”, Journal of Finance, 50(1), 131-155.

Fama, E.F. ve French, K.R. (1998), “Value Versus Growth: The International Evidence”, Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1975-1999.

Finnerty, J.E. (1976), “Insiders and Market Efficiency”, Journal of Finance, 31(4), 1141-1148.

Foster, T.W. ve Vickrey, D. (1978), “The Information Content of Stock Dividend Announcements”, Accounting Review, 53(2), 360-370.

French, K.R. ve Roll, R. (1986), “Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of İnformation and The Reaction of Traders”, Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 5-26.

Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı, http://www.gib.gov.tr/fileadmin/HTML/VI/ECVOMLK/ 2004/2004_Kur_Ver_Ilk100.xls.htm Erişim Tarihi: 11/07/2012.

Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı, http://www.gib.gov.tr/fileadmin/user_upload/Gerekceler/5520_Sayili_Kanun.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 11/07/2012

Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı, http://www.gib.gov.tr/fileadmin/user_upload/Yararli_ Bilgiler/2007_KV_Oranlari.html Erişim Tarihi: 14/08/2012

Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı, http://www.gib.gov.tr/fileadmin/HTML/VI/ECVOMLK/ 2004/2004_Kur_Ver_Ilk100.xls.htm Erişim Tarihi:11/10/2012

Graddy, D.B., Homaifar, G. ve Hollman, K.W. (1992), “Tax Reform's Impact on Insurance Industry Stock Returns”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 59(2), 284-290.

Gordon, R.H. ve Lee, Y. (1999), “Do Taxes Affect Corporate Debt Policy? Evidence from US Corporate Tax Return Data”, NBER Working Paper, No:7433.

Jaffe, J., Keim, D.B. ve Westerfield, R. (1989), “Earnings Yields, Market Values and Stock Returns”, Journal of Finance, 44(1), 135-148.

Jaffe, J.F. (1974), “Special Information and Insider Trading”, Journal of Business, 47(3), 410-428.

Jegadeesh, N. ve Titman, S. (1993), “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency”, Journal of Finance, 48, 65-91.

Jeng, L.A., Metrick, A. ve Zeckhauser, R. (2003), “Estimating the Returns to İnsider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(2), 453-471.

İMKB, İMKB Bültenleri, http://www.imkb.gov.tr/Data/StocksData.aspx Erişim Tarihi: 21/05/2012

Kendall, M.G. ve Hill, A.B. (1953), “The Analysis of Economic Time-Series-Part I: Prices”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 116(1), 11-34.

Keown, A.J. ve Pinkerton, J.M. (1981), “Merger Announcements and Insider Trading Activity: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Finance, 36(4), 855-869.

Kothari, S.P. ve Warner, J.B. (2007), “Econometrics of Event Studies,” Handbook of Corporate Finance: Empirical Corporate Finance (Kitapta Bölüm), 1(1), Elsevier/North-Holland, Handbooks in Finance Series.

Mackinlay, A.C. (1997), Event Studies in Economics and Finance, Journal of Economic Literature, 35, 13-39.

McWilliams, A. ve Siegel, D. (1997), Event Studies in Management Research: Theoretical and Empirical Issues, Academy of Management Journal, 40(3), 626-657.

Mutlu, A. (2009), Tazminattan Günümüze Türkiye’de Vergileme Zihniyetinin Gelişimi, Maliye Strateji Geliştirme Başkanlığı Yayın No:2009/390, Ankara.

Pettit, R.R. (1972), “Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency”, Journal of Finance, 27(5), 993-1007.

Rantapuska, E. (2008), “Ex-Dividend Day Trading: Who, How, and Why? Evidence From The Finnish Market”, Journal of Financial Economics, 88, 355-374.

Roberts, H.V. (1959), “Stock-Market ‘Patterns’ and Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions”, Journal of Finance, 14(1), 1-10.

Rozeff, M.S. ve Zaman, M.A. (1988), “Market Efficiency and Insider Trading: New Evidence”, Journal of Business, 61(1), 25-44.

Sialm, C. (2005), “Tax Changes and Asset Pricing: Time-Series Evidence”, NBER Working Paper, No:11756.

Sharpe, W.F. (1963), “A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis”, Management Science, 9(2), 277-293.

Stiglitz, J.E. ve Grossman, S.J. (1980), “On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets”, American Economic Review, 70(3), 393-408.

Summers, L.H. (1986), “Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?”, Journal of Finance, 41(3), 591-601.

Vernimmen, P. (2009), Corporate Finance Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition), İngiltere: John Wiley&Sons Ltd.

Whitworth, J. ve Rao, R.P. (2010), “Do Tax Law Changes Influence Ex-Dividend Stock Price Behavior? Evidence from 1926 to 2005”, Financial Management, 39(1), 419-445.