SEÇİLİ G-20 ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: YAPISAL KIRILMALI BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada, finansal açıdan dışa açılma sürecinin hız kazandığı 1990’lardan itibaren cari işlemler açıklarıyla karşılaştığı belirlenen seçili G20 ülkelerinde cari işlemler açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği, Hakkio ve Rush (1991) ve Husted (1992) tarafından geliştirilen dönemlerarası model kapsamında incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada, seçili G-20 ülkelerinde 1990:Q1- 2017:Q4 dönemindeki cari işlemler açıklarının sürdürülebilirlik düzeyinin, yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan, ikinci nesil panel veri analizi metodolojisiyle ampirik açıdan belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda, seçili G-20 ülkelerinden; Kanada ve İngiltere’de inceleme dönemindeki cari işlemler açıklarının güçlü bir formda sürdürülebilir olduğu belirlenirken, Fransa, Hindistan, Meksika, Avusturalya, Türkiye, İtalya, Güney Afrika, ABD, Endonezya, Arjantin ve Brezilya’da ise inceleme dönemindeki cari işlemler açıklarının sürdürülemez veya zayıf bir formda sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmektedir. Bu sonuçlar, cari işlemler açıklarının sürdürülemez veya zayıf bir formda sürdürülebilir olduğu seçili G20 ülkelerinde, ihracat gelirleri ile ithalat giderleri arasındaki farklılıkların giderilebilmesine ve cari işlemler açıklarının azaltılabilmesine yönelik kısa ve uzun vadeli politika tedbirlerinin geliştirilip uygulanmasının gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir.

SUSTAINABILITY OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS IN THE SELECTED G-20 COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS

In this study, the sustainability of the current account deficits in the selected G-20 countries, which have been determined to meet the current account deficits since the 1990s, when the process of financial outward opening has accelerated, is examined within the framework of the intertemporal model developed by Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Husted (1992). In this context, in the study it is aimed to empirically determine the level of sustainability of the current account deficits during the 1990: Q1-2017: Q4 period in the selected G-20 countries by means of second-generation panel data analysis methodology, taking into account crosssectional dependence and structural breaks. As a result of the study, it was identified that current account deficits during the review period in France, India, Mexico, Australia, Turkey, Italy, South Africa, USA, Indonesia, Argentina and Brazil were unsustainable or sustainable in a weak form while it was determined that current account deficits during the review period in Canada and United Kingdom from the selected G-20 countries were sustainable in a powerful form. These results indicate that the necessity of developing and implementing short and long term policy measures to eliminate the differences between export revenues and import expenditures and to reduce current account deficit in the selected G-20 countries where current account deficits are unsustainable or sustainable in a weak form.

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