Türkiye'nin Meyve ve Sebze İhracatı: Bir Çekim Modeli Uygulaması

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'nin meyve ve sebze ihracatını Poisson Pseudo Maksimum Olabilirlik (PPML) yöntemi ile tahmin etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 2004-2014 dönemini kapsayan ve Türkiye'nin ihracat yaptığı 63 ülkeye ait yıllık panel veriler çekim modelinde kullanılmıştır. Yapılan tahminin sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye'nin sebze ve meyve ihracatı yaptığı ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklükleri ve kişi başına düşen gelirleri, sebze ve meyve ihracatı ile pozitif ilişkiliyken, ülkelerin birbirlerine olan uzaklığı meyve ve sebze ihracatı ile negatif ilişkilidir. Ayrıca, kukla değişkenler olarak kullanılan sınır komşusu ülke olma durumu meyve ve sebze ihracatını olumlu yönde etkilerken, AB üyesi ülke olma durumu, 2008 küresel finansal krizi ve 2010 Arap Baharı siyasi krizinden olumsuz yönde etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, politika yapıcıları meyve ve sebze ihracat stratejisinde söz konusu tespitleri dikkate almaları önem arz etmektedir

The Turkey's Fruit and Vegetable Exports: An Application of the Gravity Model

This study aims to estimate Turkey's fruit and vegetable exports by using Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood method (PPML). For this purpose, annual panel data which covers the period between 2004 and 2014 and belongs to 63 countries to which Turkey exports are used with gravity model. The results of estimation process shows that economic size and gross domestic per capita of the countries to which Turkey exports fruits and vegetables are positively correlated with fruit and vegetable export whereas geographical distance between countries are negatively correlated with fruit and vegetable export. Furthermore, while having a common border, which is used as a dummy variable, has a positive impact on fruit and vegetable exports, being a member of EU, 2008 global financial crisis and 2010 Arab Spring political crisis have a negative impact on fruit and vegetable exports. In conclusion, the policy makers should take into account the aforesaid findings in Turkey's fruit and vegetable export strategy

Kaynakça

AKİB. (2015). Akdeniz İhracatçı Birlikleri, Türkiye Geneli Yaş Meyve Sebze Değerlendirme Raporları, Erişim Tarihi:14.08.2015.http://www.akib.org.tr/tr/ihracat-arastirma-raporlari-yas-meyve-sebze-ihracatcilari- birligi.html

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Tablo 2. Çalışmada Kullanılan Ülkeler Almanya Avustralya Cezayir Gambiya İspanya Kostarika Norveç Tunus Avusturya

Çek Cumhuriyeti Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti Danimarka Gürcistan Letonya Polonya Uganda Bahreyn Belçika

Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Birleşik Devletler

Birleşik Krallık İsveç İsviçre Macaristan Romanya Rusya Federasyonu Singapur Slovakya Finlandiya Irak İran (İslam Cum.) Makedonya Malezya Malta Uruguay Venezüella Yeni Zelanda Brezilya Fransa Kanada Moldova

Suudi Arabistan Yunanistan

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