Küresel Ekonomik, Politik ve Jeopolitik Belirsizliklerin Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018Q:2)

Bu çalışmada, küresel ekonomide ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik (EPJ) gelişmelerden kaynaklı belirsizliklerin, Türkiye ekonomisinin finansal ve mali nitelikli temel makroekonomik göstergeleri (faiz, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranı, döviz kuru, hisse senedi fiyatları, para arzı, cari işlemler dengesi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, portföy yatırımları, diğer yatırımlar, fiziksel sermaye birikimi, ekonomik büyüme) üzerinde teorik düzeyde öngörüldüğü gibi etkiler yaratıp yaratmadığının ampirik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, küresel EPJ belirsizliklerin Türkiye ekonomisinin finansal ve mali nitelikli makroekonomik göstergeleri üzerindeki etkileri, zaman serisi analizi metodolojisi ve SVAR modeli kapsamında 1992:Q1-2018Q:2 dönemi için ekonometrik olarak araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonucunda, küresel EPJ gelişmelerden kaynaklı belirsizliklerin, kısa ve/veya uzun dönemde Türkiye ekonomisinin finansal ve mali nitelikli makroekonomik göstergeleri üzerinde önemli ölçüde ve beklentilerle uyumlu olarak olumsuz yönde etkiler yarattığı belirlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte sonuçlar, küresel ekonomik düzlemdeki konumuyla Türkiye ekonomisinin finansal ve mali nitelikli makroekonomik göstergeleri üzerinde küresel EPJ gelişmelerden kaynaklı belirsizliklerin mevcut düzeyiyle önemli bir dışsal istikrarsızlık unsuru olarak durduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Macroeconomic Effects of Global Economic, Political and Geopolitical Uncertainties: SVAR Analysis on Turkey's Economy (1992:Q1-2018Q:2)

In this study, it is aimed to examine empirically whether the uncertainties stemming from economic, political and geopolitical (EPG) developments in the global economy creates effects on financial and fiscal qualified the basic macroeconomic indicators of Turkey's economy (interest, inflation and unemployment rate, exchange rate, stock prices, money supply, current account balance, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, other investments, physical capital accumulation, economic growth) as predicted in the theoretical level. In the study for this purpose, the effects of global EPG uncertainties on financial and fiscal qualified the macroeconomic indicators of Turkey's economy are investigated econometrically by the time series analysis methodology and scope of SVAR model for the period 1992:Q1-2018Q:2. As a result of this study, it was determined that uncertainties stemming from global EPG developments have had significantly negative impacts on the financial and macroeconomic indicators of the Turkish economy in line with expectations in the short and/or long term. However, the results indicate that the current level of uncertainties stemming from global EPJ developments on the financial and fiscal qualified macroeconomic indicators of the Turkey's economy with its position in the global economic plane is an important element of external instability.

Kaynakça

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Kaynak Göster