On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty

Öz Macroeconomic and financial indicators have a significant impact on the exchange market pressure (EMP) in Turkey. Despite the huge amount of literature on the subject, there is no study focusing on Turkey that takes into account the role of model uncertainty on exchange market pressure. The role of model uncertainty should be taken into consideration, given the lack of a unique theoretical framework on the exchange markets pressure and a set of numerous explanatory variables. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique is capable of determining as to whether any explanatory variable should be included in the analysis, i.e. the models with high posterior probability. To this end, the determinants of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) in Turkey for the period of 2010M1-2020M3 are identified using the Bayesian model averaging which takes into account the role of model uncertainty. Model results indicate that the slope of the yield curve, domestic credit growth, the long term yield differentials, and short-term portfolio flows play a significant role as determinants of the exchange rate pressures of Turkey.

Kaynakça

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Kaynak Göster

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { jecs888154, journal = {Journal of Economy Culture and Society}, issn = {2602-2656}, eissn = {2645-8772}, address = {[email protected]}, publisher = {İstanbul Üniversitesi}, year = {2021}, volume = {}, pages = {199 - 211}, doi = {10.26650/JECS2020-0110}, title = {On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty}, key = {cite}, author = {Poyraz, Gülden and İncekara, Ahmet} }
APA Poyraz, G , İncekara, A . (2021). On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty . Journal of Economy Culture and Society , (63) , 199-211 . DOI: 10.26650/JECS2020-0110
MLA Poyraz, G , İncekara, A . "On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty" . Journal of Economy Culture and Society (2021 ): 199-211 <
Chicago Poyraz, G , İncekara, A . "On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty". Journal of Economy Culture and Society (2021 ): 199-211
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty AU - Gülden Poyraz , Ahmet İncekara Y1 - 2021 PY - 2021 N1 - doi: 10.26650/JECS2020-0110 DO - 10.26650/JECS2020-0110 T2 - Journal of Economy Culture and Society JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 199 EP - 211 VL - IS - 63 SN - 2602-2656-2645-8772 M3 - doi: 10.26650/JECS2020-0110 UR - Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Journal of Economy Culture and Society On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty %A Gülden Poyraz , Ahmet İncekara %T On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty %D 2021 %J Journal of Economy Culture and Society %P 2602-2656-2645-8772 %V %N 63 %R doi: 10.26650/JECS2020-0110 %U 10.26650/JECS2020-0110
ISNAD Poyraz, Gülden , İncekara, Ahmet . "On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty". Journal of Economy Culture and Society / 63 (Haziran 2021): 199-211 .
AMA Poyraz G , İncekara A . On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2021; (63): 199-211.
Vancouver Poyraz G , İncekara A . On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2021; (63): 199-211.
IEEE G. Poyraz ve A. İncekara , "On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty", Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sayı. 63, ss. 199-211, Haz. 2021, doi:10.26650/JECS2020-0110
  • ISSN: 2602-2656
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
  • Yayıncı: İstanbul Üniversitesi

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