Savunma Harcamasındaki Değişimlerin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye için Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Modeli ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

Savunma harcamasının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu ya da olumsuz etkileri olduğuna dair teorik açıklamalar ve bu açıklamaları destekleyen uygulamalı çalışmalar bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1960-2019 dönemi için Türkiye’de savunma harcamasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış model (NARDL) tahmin edilerek ve asimetrik nedensellik testi (Hatemi-J testi) yapılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu yöntemler yoluyla savunma harcamasındaki artma veya azalma yönündeki değişimlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri ayrıştırılmış olmaktadır. Hem NARDL model bulguları hem de asimetrik nedensellik test sonuçları savunma harcamasının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde asimetrik etkilerinin olduğunu, savunma harcamasındaki artışın büyüme üzerinde etkisi yok iken, savunma harcamasındaki azalmanın anlamlı bir etkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Bunun yanında, Türkiye’de bu örneklem dönemi için, elde edilen uzun dönem esneklik katsayıları savunma harcamasındaki azalmanın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Savunma harcaması, ekonomik büyüme, asimetrik etkiler, doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme

Effects of Defense Spending Changes on Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Cointegration Model and Asymmetric Causality Test for Turkey

There have been various arguments claiming that defense spending has positive or negative effects on economic growth and there have been plenty of researches supporting these cross arguments. In this paper, the effect the defense spending on the economic growth within the period of 1960-2019 is being analyzed for Turkey. For this aim, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) has been estimated and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test has been imposed. The effects of the increases or decreases in defense spending on economic growth are decomposed by using these methods. The results derived from the NARDL estimations and asymmetric causality test supported that there are asymmetric effects of the changes in defense spending on economic growth. Both methods indicated that increase in defense spending does not have any effect on growth and decrease in defense spending has significant effect on growth. Besides, the resulting long run elasticities suggested that decrease in defense spending has the positive effect on the economic growth for the sample period.

Keywords:

defense spending, economic growth, asymmetric effects, nonlinear cointegration,

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