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Keynesgil Sistem'in Gelişmesi

Bu makalemizde Keynesgil makroekonomik sistemin özellikle 1970'li yıllardan bu yana, karşıt okullardan gelen başlıca eleştirilerin gözönüne alınması yoluyla kaydettiği gelişmeler analitik bir yaklaşımla incelenmiştir. Daha önceki gelişmelere, bu arada Phillips Eğrisinin (PE) Keynesgil Sisteme dahil edilmesine, Neo-Keynesgiller ile Neo-Klasikler arasındaki tartışmalara ve Neo-Klasik Sentez'e, "Köktenci Keynesgiller" e sadece hatırlatma amacıyla ve kısaca değinilmektedir. Makalede ilk olarak M.Friedman'in ve Monetaristlerin kısa dönem PE'ler yanında bir uzun dönem PE'nin varlığı, ikinci olarak IS, LM eğrilerinin esnekliklerine göre para ve maliye politikalarının etkinliği ile ilgili eleştirilen ele alınmış, bu iki eleştirinin Keynesgil iktisatçılar tarafından nasıl farklı bir yoruma tabi tutularak Keynesgil sisteme dahil edildiği açıklanmıştır. Bunu izleyerek, Keynesgil sistemin mikroekonomik temellerden yoksun bulunduğu ve otomatik tam istihdam dengesi veren mikro iktisat ile makro eksik istihdam sonucunun tutarsızlığı yolunda, Yeni Klasikler tarafından yöneltilen eleştiriler ele alınmıştır. Bu eleştiriler karşısında Keynesgiller makro sistemlerini mikro temellere oturtmuşlardır. Fakat tam rekabet şartları yerine eksik rekabet şartlarını ve piyasalar arası koordinasyon noksanı varsayımını kabul etmişlerdir. Bu varsayımlar yine Keynesgil eksik istihdam dengesi vermektedir. Ne var ki, Yeni Keynesgil iktisatçılar Yeni Klasik "rasyonel beklentiler hipotezi" (RBH) ile çalışırlar ve uzun dönemde ekonominin kendiliğinden tam istihdama yöneleceğini kabul ederler. Bunun istisnası Etkinlik Ücreti ve Histerezis gibi, Super-Keynesgil Modellerdir. Bu modeller hem kısa hem uzun dönemde eksik istihdam verir. Post Keynesgil okul ise RBH'ni reddederek Keynesgil "heterojen beklentiler" ve "belirsizlik" varsayımlarıyla çalışır. Böylece hem kısa hem uzun dönemde eksik istihdam sonucuna ulaşırlar. Makalemizde, Yeni Keynesgil okul, Super-Keynesgil modeller ve Post Keynesgil okul aralarındaki farklar ayrıntılı biçimde belirtilmektedir.

Development of the Keynesian System

In this article we have surveyed analytically the development of the Keynesian system since the 1970s in view of criticisms coming from opprosing makro schools, Monetarism and New Classical. We, therefore, deal briefly and as reminder with the pre-1970 inclusion of the Phillips Curve (PC) to the Keynesian System as well as the discussions between Neo-Classicals Neo-Keynesians and the Neo-Classical Synthesis. We first deal with M. Friedman's assertion about the existence of a long run PC in addition to short run PCs, and secondly again with his criticisms of the efficiency of the monetary vs. fiscal policies in view of the relative elasticities of IS, LM curves. We explain how Keynesians have incorporated these into their system by rendering different interpretrations and assumptions to them. Followingly, we take up the cricisms of the New Classiclas about the lack of microeconomic foundations of the Keynesian system and its incompatility with the automatic full employment conclusion of microeconomics. Keynesians tried to establish micro foundations to their macro system but accepted imperfect competition and lack of coordination between markets, which again gave us Keynesian unemployment. New Keynesian school have worked with the New Classical "Rational Expectations Hypothesis" and arrived at Keynesian unemployment in the short run (SR) but full employment in the long-run (LR). Exceptions were the Super-Keynesian, "Efficiency Wage" and "Hysteresis" models which gave unemployment both for the SR and the LR. Post Keynesian school, however, rejected rational expectations, worked with both Keynesian heterogeneous expectations and uncertainty, thereby arriving at Keynesian unemployment again both in the SR and LR. In our article we try to accentuate these differences between the New Keynesian school, Super-Keynesian models and the Post Keynesian school.
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İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası-Cover
  • ISSN: 1304-0235
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Yayıncı: Kare Yayıncılık
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Ödemeler Dengesine Parasal Yaklaşım

Zafer TUNCA

İhracatçı İşletme Yöneticilerinin Perspektifinden İhracat Engelleri

Şuayip ÖZDEMİR

Keynesgil Sistem'in Gelişmesi

Özlen BİROL HİÇ