ÜÇÜNCÜ NESİL KRİZ TEORİLERİ VE 1997/8 ASYA KRİZİ

Kriz teorileri bakımından 1997/8 Asya krizi fenomeni bir dönüm noktasıdır. Asya krizi hem gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde 1929 krizinden bu yana tecrübe edilen en büyük kriz vakası ve hem de geleneksel kriz teorilerince izah edilememektedir. Krizin vuku bulacağını arafesi yılda bile kimse tahmin etmemiştir. Bu karakterleri sebebiyle Asya krizi kriz literatüründe yeni perspektiflere ihtiyacı kuvvetlendirmiş ve bu yönde arayışları tetiklemiştir. Üçüncü nesil kriz teorileri sözkonusu yeni yaklaşım ihtiyaç ve arayışlarının ürünü olup kısaca Asya krizi akabinde ortaya çıkıp kuvvetlenen ve bu fenomeni izah etmeyi hedefleyen teoriler olarak ifade edilebilir. Makalemizde üçüncü nesil kriz teorileri üzerine odaklanılmaktadır. Birinci kısımda genel olarak üçüncü nesil kriz teorilerinin çerçevesi üzerinde durulmuştur. İkinci kısımda 1997/8 Asya krizini 1. ve 2. nesil kriz teorilerinin niçin açıklayamamakta olduğu ele alınmıştır. Üçüncü kısımda üçüncü nesil kriz teorileri tasnif edilmesine çalışılmıştır. Dördüncü kısımda üçüncü nesil kriz teorilerinin ortak temel özelliklerine yer verilmiştir. Beşinci kısım ise ulaşılan bazı sonuçları içermektedir.

___

  • Ackerloff, G (1970),”The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84: 4888-500, Aghion, Philippe, Bachetta Philippe, and
  • Banerjee, Abhijit (2000), “Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraint”, mimeo, MIT,
  • ______________ (2001), “a Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises”, Bauer, C., Herz, B., and
  • Karb, V. (2003), “Another Twin Crisis: Currency and Debt”, (April 2003),
  • _______________(2005), “Are Twin Currency and Debt Crises Special?”,
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. (1998), “Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: the Simple Economics of Sudden Stops”, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. I, No: 1, (Nov. 1998), s. 35-54,
  • ________________(2005), “Crises in Emerging Market Economies: a Global Perspective”, NBER, Wp no. 1305,
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1999), “When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options”,
  • Catão, Luis A. V. (2006), “Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: a Historical Look”, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/133,
  • Chang, Roberto and Velasco, Andres (1998a), “Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime”, NBER, Wp no. 6469,
  • _____________ (1998b), “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: a Canonical Model”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Working Paper 98-10,
  • _____________ (1998c), “the Asian Liquidity Crisis”, NBER, Wp no. 6796,
  • ______________(1999), “Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets Theory and Policy”, NBER, Wp no. 7272,
  • Corsetti, G., Pesenti, P., and Roubini, N. (1998a), "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis, Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview", NBER, Working Paper No. 6833,
  • ______________(1998b), "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis, Part II: The Policy Debate", NBER Working Paper, Working Paper 6834,
  • ______________(1998c), "Paper Tigers? A Model of The Asian Crisis", NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 6783, Diamond, Douglas W. and
  • Dybvig, Philipp H. (1983), “Banks Runs, Deposit Unsurence, and Liquidity”, the Journal of Political Economy, Volume 91, p. 401-419,
  • Dreher, Axel, Herz, Bernard, and Volker, Karb (2005), “Is There a Causal Link between Currency and Debt Crises?”, (February),
  • Hagen, Jürgen von and Ho, Tai-kuang (2003a), “Twin Crises: a Reexamination of Emprical Links”, ZEI b, Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn,
  • ________________(2003b), “Money Martet Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises”, ZEI b, Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn,
  • ________________ ,“Emprical Links between Twin Crises in the 1980s and the 1990s: Were There Differences”, (tarihsiz), ZEI b, Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn,
  • ________________ (2004), “Twin Crises: an Examination of the Emprical Links”, ZEI b, Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn,
  • Herz, Bernard and Tong, Hui (2004), “the Interactions between Debt and Currency Crises-Common Causes or Contagion?”, Universitat Bayreuth, Diskussionspapier 17,
  • ___________ (2007), “Debt and Currency Crises-Complements or Substitutes?”, Hutchison, Michael and
  • Noy, Ilan (2004), “Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets”, Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Paper 0413,
  • Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C. M. (1996, 1999), "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems", Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, mimeo, February,
  • _______________ (2003) “Varieties of Currency Crises”, NBER, Working Paper no. 10193,
  • Krugman, Paul (1998a), “Bubble, boom, crash: theoretical notes on Asia‟s crisis”, mimeo,
  • ________________(1998b), “What Happened to Asia‟”,
  • ________________(1999), “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises”,
  • ________________ (2000), “Crises: the Price of Globalization”
  • ________________ (2001), “Crises: the Next Generation?”, McKinnon, R. and
  • Pill, H. (1996), “Credible liberalizations and international capital flows: the Overborroving syndrome”, in T. Ito and A. O. Krueger, eds., Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, Chicago University Pres.,
  • Mendoza, Enrique G. (2001), “Credit, Price, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stops”, NBER, Wp no. 8338,
  • ______________ (2006a), “Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops”, NBER, Wp no. 11966,
  • ______________ (2006b), “Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraint: a Fischerian Debt Deflation of Tobin‟s Q”, NBER, Wp no. 12564,
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1991), Asymetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective. In: Hubbard RG (ed) Financial Crises, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 69-108,
  • _______________ (1991), Anatomy of a Financial Crisis, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No: 3934,
  • _______________ (1994), "Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective", Manchester School, 62, (1994): 1-40,
  • _______________ (1996a), “Understanding Financial Crises: a Developing Country Perspective, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No: 5600,
  • _______________ (1996b), "The Monetary Transmission Mehanism: Lessons for Policy", mimeo, February,
  • _______________ (1997a), "The Causes and Propagation of Financial Instability: Lessons for Policymakers", in: Hakkio, C. Ed., Maintaining Financial Stability in a Global Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, 55-96,
  • _______________ (1997b), "Evaluating FDICIA", in George Kaufman, ed., FDICIA: Bank Reform and Five Years Later and Five Years Ahead, Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press, 17-33,
  • _______________ (1998), “The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets”, 5th Edition, Reading, Mass: Addison Wesley Longman,
  • _______________ (1999), "Lessons from The Asian Crisis", NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 7102,
  • _______________ (1999a), "Financial Consolidation: Dangers and Opportunities", Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 23, Nos 2-4, 675-91, February,
  • _______________ (1999b), "Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues", Journal of Economic Perspectives, forthcoming, Winter,
  • _______________ (2000), "Causes of The Korean Financial Crisis: Lessons for Policy", NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 7483,
  • _______________ (2000), "Financial Policies and The Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries", NBER Working Paper Series,
  • _______________ (2003), "The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets”, Internatiaonal Edition, Sixth Edition Update, Mishkin, F. S. and
  • Hall, Uris (2000), "Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries”,
  • Obstfeld, Maurice (1984), “Ratitonal and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises” NBER, wp. No. 1486,
  • ________________(1994), “the Logic of Currency Crises”, NBER, Wp. No. 4640,
  • ________________(1995), “Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features”, NBER, Wp no. 5285,
  • Park, Yung Chul (1996), “East Asian Liberalization, Bubbles, and the Challenges from China”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 2, pp. 357-71, Radelet, Steven and
  • Sachs, Jeffrey (1998a), “the East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects”, Brooking Papers on Activity; 1998:1,
  • _______________ (1998b) "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis", NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 6680,
  • Rajan, Ramkishen S. (2001), “(Ir)relevance of Currency Crisis Theory to the Devaluation and Collapse of the Thai Baht”, Princeton Studies in International Economics, No: 88,
  • Samur, Cengiz (2008), “Finansal Krizler ve Kriz Yönetme Politikaları: 1980 Sonrası Türkiye Örneği”, Uludağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi),
  • Shin, I. S. (2005), "Luiquidity and Twin Crises”,
  • Wälti, Sebastian (2003), “Simple Models of Currency Crises”,
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB), Key Indicators 2006 (www.adb.org/statistics).