Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi

Bu çalışma kripto paralar için miktar teorisinin geçerliliğini sınamaktadır. Son yıllarda para piyasalarında gündeme gelen kripto paralar, paranın yeni bir türü olarak algılanmaktadır. Paranın tarihsel gelişimi ele alındığında kripto paraların çıkışı, geleneksel paraların kullanılmasına neden olan ihtiyaçlar ile benzerlik göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla literatürdeki para kurallarının geleceğin parası olarak adlandırılan kripto paralar için test edilmemesi büyük bir eksikliktir. Çalışma kapsamında kripto paraların çıkışı ve kullanıma başlaması diğer para türleri ile karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınmış ve kripto paralar için Fisher’in miktar teorisi modeli test edilmiştir. Temel kripto para birimi olan Bitcoin’in piyasa değeri ve miktarı kullanılarak Ağustos 2010 ve Nisan 2021 dönemini kapsayan aylık frekanslı veriler ile zaman serisi analizi yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucu Bitcoin miktarı ve değeri arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Bu durumun temel nedeni blok zincir yöntemini kullanan kripto paralardaki madencilik faaliyetleri ile açıklanmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik analiz Covid-19 salgınının Bitcoin miktarı ve piyasa değeri arasındaki doğrusal ilişkiyi güçlendirdiğini göstermiştir. Analiz sonuçlarının anlaşılması ve literatürdeki boşluğu doldurmak amacıyla çalışma kapsamında blok zincir yöntemini kullanan kripto paralar için para arzı, emisyon ve senyoraj geliri gibi konulara değinilmiş ve bu süreçlerin işleyişi açıklanmıştır. Bu çalışma kripto paralarda Fisher Miktar Teorisinin geçerli olmadığını gösteren öncül bir kaynaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kripto para, Miktar teorisi, Covid-19

Application of Quantity Theory of Money in Cryptocurrencies: Example of Bitcoin and the Impact of Covid-19

This study tests the validity of the quantity theory for cryptocurrencies. They have been on the agenda of financial markets in recent years, and they are perceived as a new type of money. Considering the historical development of money, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is similar to the evolution of traditional currency. Therefore, great deficiency exists in the in the existing literature because money rules are not tested for cryptocurrencies, which have been referred to as the money of the future. Within the scope of this study, releases and the use of cryptocurrencies were comparatively discussed with other types of money, and Fisher’s quantity theory model was tested for crypto coins. Using the market value and amount of Bitcoin, the time series analysis is performed with monthly frequency data covering a period from August 2010 to April 2021. As a result of the analysis, it is understood that a linear relationship prevails between the amount and value of Bitcoin. The main reason for this situation can be explained by cryptocurrency mining activities that use the blockchain method. the econometric analysis shows that the Covid-19 outbreak has strengthened the positive relationship between Bitcoin amount and market value. To understand the results of the analysis and fill the gap in the literature, issues such as money supply, emission and seigniorage income for cryptocurrencies are discussed and the operating processes for each are explained. This study contributes to the literature by showing that the Fisher Quantity Theory is not valid for cryptocurrencies.

Keywords:

Cryptocurrency, Quantity theory, Covid-19,

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