Türkiye’de Hisse Senedi Piyasası ve Ekonomik Gelişme İlişkisinin ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile Analizi

Bu çalışma hisse senedi piyasası ile ekonomik gelişme arasındaki ilişkileri 1986 ile 2016 arasında, yıllık bazda incelemektedir. ARDL sınır testi ve Hata Düzeltme Terimi (ECT) vasıtasıyla değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler ve denge durumu belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar hisse senedi piyasasının gelişimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde bir eşbütünleşme olduğunu göstermiştir. Kısa dönemli Granger nedensellik testi, GSYH ve para arzından hisse senedi piyasası gelişimine doğru iki yönlü bir nedensellik, özel sektör kredilerinden toplam dış ticarete yönelik tek yönlü bir nedensellik, para arzı ile toplam dış ticaret arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik, GSYH'dan geniş para arzına yönelik de tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunurken kısa vadede özel sektör kredilerine doğru herhangi bir nedensellik bulunamamıştır. Çalışma neticesinde, uzun vadede eşbütünleşik olan verilerin kısa vadede Schumpeter (1911)'de ortaya atılan görüşler yerine, Lewis (1954)'de ortaya atılan görüşlere daha yakın olduğu, ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişime doğru bir akış yerine, karşılıklı bir etkileşim içinde oldukları sonucu ortaya çıkarmıştır

Analysing of the Relation Between Stock Markets and Economic Growth in Turkey by ARDL Bound Test

This study investigates the relation between stock market and economic growth using yearly data between 1986 and 2016. Through the ARDL boundary test and the Error Correction Term (ECT), long-term relationships and equilibrium between variables were determined. The results showed that there was a long-term cointegration between the stock market development and economic growth. In the short-term Granger causality test, it has been concluded that the gross domestic product and money supply have two-way causality with stock exchange market, that there was one-way causality from private-sector loans to total external trade, that money supply has two-way causality with total foreign trade, that there was one-way causality from gross domestic product to money supply, that private sector loans had no causality with other sectors. In conclusion, the cointegrated variables are closer to the views of Lewis (1954) instead of Schumpeter (1911) and stock market capitalization has bilateral interaction with economic growth rather than a one-way flow from economic growth to stock market capitalization

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