Kâr Payı Dağıtımı ve Nakit Akışı Belirsizliği İlişkisi: BIST İmalat Sektörü Firmalarında Bir Uygulama

Bu çalışmanın amacı firmaların nakit akışı belirsizliklerinin nakit kâr payı dağıtım tutarına ve olasılığına etkilerinin ortaya konulmasıdır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Borsa İstanbul’da (BIST) işlem gören 165 adet imalat sektörü firmasının 2005-2017 arasındaki yıllık verileri klasik panel veri ve panel logit veri modelleriyle analize tabi tutulmuştur. İlgili modellerde diğer kontrol değişkenleri konuya ilişkin literatürde sıklıkla kullanılan serbest nakit akışları, aktif büyüklüğü, finansal kaldıraç, piyasa değeri/defter değeri, kârlılık, dağıtılmamış kârlar/toplam özsermaye olarak belirlenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, firmaların nakit akışı belirsizliklerinin dağıtılan kâr payı tutarını ve olasılığını olumsuz yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Buna göre, firmalar nakit akışı belirsizliklerine maruz kaldıklarında nakitlerini kâr payı olarak dağıtmak yerine korumayı tercih etmektedir. Ayrıca, kâr payı dağıtımı ile serbest nakit akışı, aktif büyüklüğü, piyasa değeri/defter değeri, kârlılık, dağıtılmamış kârlar/toplam özsermaye arasında pozitif; finansal kaldıraç arasında ise, negatif ilişki bulunmuştur.

The Relationship Between Dividend Distributions and Cash Flow Uncertainty: An Empirical Analysis on BIST Manufacturing Industry Firms

The aim of this study is to determine the effects of cash flow uncertainty on the amount of dividend distributions by firms and the probability of paying dividends. In line with this aim, we analysed the yearly data of 165 manufacturing firms quoted on Borsa Istanbul (BIST) over 2005-2017 period using panel data and panel logit models. Based on the previous studies, our control variables are determined as the free cash flow, asset size, financial leverage, market-to-book ratio, profitability and retained-earnings-to-total-earnings ratio. The results show that cash flow uncertainty negatively affects the amount of dividends paid and the probability of paying dividends. Accordingly, firms prefer to protect their cash rather than distributing them as dividends when they face uncertainty in cash flows. Furthermore, the results show that free cash flow, asset size, market to book, profitability and retained-earnings-to-total-earnings ratio affect dividends positively, whereas leverage affects it negatively.

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