Hanehalkı Tasarruf Tercihlerinin Ardışık Logit Modelle Belirlenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Amaç – Genel iktisadi düşüncede tasarruf konusu, kalkınma ve büyüme için kilit bir rol oynamaktadır. Ülkelerin yüksek seviyeli bir gelir dengesine ulaşması önemli ölçüde yatırımların artmasına bağlıdır. Kurumsal sektörler içerisinde hanehalkı sektörü en yüksek tasarruf payına sahiptir. Dolayısıyla hanehalklarının tasarruf davranışını incelemek bir gereklilik haline gelmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, hanehalklarının tasarruflarının ve tasarruflarına ilişkin tercihlerinin belirleyicilerini araştırmaktır. Yöntem – Araştırma, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK)’nun yayınlamış olduğu 2017 Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi kullanılarak, Ardışık Logit Model ile hanehalklarının tasarruf ve tasarruf tercihleri incelenmiştir. Modelin bağımlı değişkenleri belirlenirken veri setindeki hanehalkları önce tasarruf eden ve etmeyen hanehalkları olarak iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Tasarruf eden hanehalkları ise kendi arasında gayrimenkule, altın ve dövize, diğer menkul kıymetlere yatırım yapanlar olarak üç kategoriye ayrılmıştır. Bulgular – Araştırma sonucunda, konut sahibi ve otomobil sahibi olan bireyler olmayanlara göre daha fazla tasarruf yapma eğilimindedir. Hanehalklarının gayrimenkule yatırım yapmasında konut sahibi olmak, özel sigorta sahibi olmak, aylık harcama miktarı, hanehalkı büyüklüğü, yaş ve çalışma süresi değişkenlerinin istatistiksel olarak önemli olduğu görülmüştür (her bir değişken için P

Determination of Household Saving Preferences with Sequential Logit Model: The Case of Turkey

Purpose – In general economic thought, the issue of savings plays a key role for development and growth. Countries reaching a high level of income balance depends on the increase of investments. Among the corporate sectors, the household sector has the highest savings. Therefore, it becomes a necessity to examine the saving behaviour of households.The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of household savings and their preferences regarding savings. Design/methodology/approach – In this research, Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI) is published by using the 2017 Household Budget Survey, savings and savings choices of households with sequential logit models were examined. While determining the dependent variables of the model, the households in the data set were divided into two groups as those who first saved and did not. Saving households, on the other hand, are divided into three categories, among those investing in real estate, gold and foreign currency, and other securities Findings – As a result of the research, individuals who own houses and cars tend to save more than those who do not. It was found that the variables of owning a house, owning private insurance, monthly expenditure, household size, age and working time were statistically significant in households' investment in real estate (P

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