Furkan ELMAZ, Özgün YÜCEL, Ali Yener MUTLU

İstatistiksel ve Makine Öğrenmeye Dayalı Yaklaşımlarla Kobalt Katalizör Üzerinden Metan Kuru Reformundan Elde Edilen Sentez Gazının Tahmini Modellemesi

Metanın kuru reformlanması, CO2 emisyonunu azaltmak ve çeşitli Fischer-Tropsch sentezlerinde ve sentez gazlarının üretiminde kullanmak için umut verici bir yöntemdir. İstenen ürünleri verimli bir şekilde elde etmek için, reaktantların ürünler üzerindeki etkisi kesin olarak bilinmelidir. Bu amaçla, yapay-zeka bazlı veri odaklı tahmin modelleri ile metan kuru reformunun modellenmesi için çeşitli çalışmalar yayınlanmıştır. Önerilen metotlar, aşırı uyum probleminin araştırılmamasından, eksik ve/veya yanlı performans değerlendirmelerinden dolayı, sürecin belirli çıktılarını tahmin etmek için yetersiz kalmıştır. Bu çalışmada 57 örnek içeren bir veri seti kullanarak üç regresyon yöntemi kullandık ve tahmin modelleri geliştirdik. Modellerin performans değerlendirmeleri, tarafsız sonuçlar elde etmek için, 10 katlı çapraz doğrulama ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Önerilen yöntemlerin hem eğitim hem de test performansları ayrı ayrı incelenmiş ve pratikte uygulanabilirliği tartışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

metan, kuru reformlama, destek vektör makineleri, yapay sinir ağları, çapraz-doğrulama

Predictive Modeling of the Syngas Production from Methane Dry Reforming over Cobalt Catalyst with Statistical and Machine Learning Based Approaches

Dry reforming of methane is a promising method to reduce the emission of CO2 and to use it in various type of Fischer–Tropsch synthesis and production of syngas. In order to obtain desirable products efficiently, the effect of reactants on the products must be known precisely. For this purpose, several studies have published for modeling the dry reforming of methane process with artificial intelligence-based data-driven prediction models. Due to lack of investigating overfitting problem and deficient and/or biased performance evaluations, actual potential of proposed methods have not been revealed for predicting certain outputs of the process. In this paper, we employed three regression methods and developed prediction models using a dataset with 57 observations. Performance evaluations of the models are performed with 10-fold cross-validation to ensure unbiased results. Proposed methods’ both training and testing performances are separately investigated, further applicability is discussed.

Keywords:

methane, dry reforming, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, cross-validation,

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