Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Kırılgan Beşli Ekonomilerinden Kanıtlar

Genel olarak, büyüme terimi yüksek gelirle, kalkınma terimi ise düşük ve orta gelirli ülkelerle ilişkilidir. Ancak, orta gelir tuzağı kavramı, büyüme ve kalkınma literatüründe yeni tartışmalara neden olmaktadır. İktisat teorisindeki teorik ve ampirik çalışmalar, düşük gelirli ülkelerin uzun yıllar boyunca belirli bir gelir aralığında kaldığını göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, 1968-2017 yılları arasında kırılgan beşli olarak adlandırılan Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye ekonomilerinin, orta gelir tuzağına düşüp düşmediği birim kök testi yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Birim kök testi sonuçları, kırılgan ekonomilerin bu süre zarfında orta gelir tuzağına düştüğünü göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Panel Birim Kök Testleri, Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri, Ekonomi

The Middle-Income Trap: Evidences from Fragile Five Economies

In general, the term growth is associated with high income, whereas the term development is associated with low and middle income countries. However, the concept of middle income trap causes new discussions in the growth and development literature. Theoretical and empirical studies in economic theory show that the low income countries have remained in a specific income range for many years. This study was carried out to reveal whether the economies of Brasil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, which were called the fragile five in the years between 1968-2017, had fallen into the middle income trap or not with the help of unit root test. Results of the unit root test show that the fragile economies had fallen into the middle income trap in that period.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Middle Income Trap, Panel Unit Root Tests, Fragile Five Countries., Economy,

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