EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN KONUT FİYATLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİSİ: NARDL UYGULAMASI

Çalışmada, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümenin konut piyasasına olan asimetrik etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Ekonomik büyümede meydana gelen artışların yanında düşüşlerin de etkilerini inceleyebilmek amacıyla Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag; NARDL) tercih edilmiştir. Çalışmada 2010M1-2019M4 dönemine ait aylık verilerle çalışılmıştır. Modelde konut fiyatlarındaki değişimi yansıtan konut fiyat endeksi bağımlı değişken, ekonomik büyümenin öncü göstergesi kabul edilen ve çalışmada vekil değişken olan sanayi üretim endeksi ise bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmaktadır. Tahmin bulguları sanayi üretim endeksi artarken konut fiyatlarının da yükseldiğini ve sanayi üretim endeksi düşerken konut fiyatlarının da gerilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre iktisat teorisine uygun biçimde ekonomik büyümenin arttığı dönemlerde konut fiyatlarının yükseldiği ve ekonomik büyümenin gerilediği ve/veya yavaşladığı dönemlerde konut fiyatlarının düştüğü bulguları elde edilmiştir. Sanayi üretimindeki artışın konut fiyatlarını yükseltici etkisi, sanayi üretimindeki azalışın konut fiyatlarını düşürücü etkisinden büyüktür ve bu etki yaklaşık yedi ay sürmektedir. Bulgular, sanayi üretimindeki azalmanın konut fiyatlarını düşürücü etkisinin ise altı ay süresince devam ettiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Sanayi üretim endeksi, Konut fiyat endeksi, asimetrik etki, konut piyasası, NARDL modeli

The study explores the asymmetric effects of economic growth on the housing market in Turkey. In order to examine the effects of declines as well as the increases in economic growth NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model is preferred. In the the study it was studied with monthly data for the period 2010M1-2019M4. In the model, the house price index, which reflects the change in house prices, is the dependent variable, while the industrial production index, which is considered the leading indicator of economic growth and which is the proxy variable in the study, is used as the independent variable. Estimation findings reveal that while the industrial production index has increased, housing prices have also increased and the industrial production index has been decreasing, while housing prices have also declined. According to this, it was found that in line with the theory of economics, in times of economic growth, housing prices rose and in times of economic growth declined and / or slowed down, housing prices decreased. The effect of the increase in industrial production on raising house prices is greater than the effect of the decrease in industrial production on lowering house prices, and this effect lasts about seven months. The findings show that the decrease in industrial production and the effect of lowering house prices continued for six months.

Keywords:

Industrial production index, house price index, asymmetric effect, housing market, NARDL model,

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