Petrol Tüketimi ve Büyüme: OECD Ülkelerine İlişkin Panel Veri Analizi

Çalışmada petrol tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 1980 ile 2013 yıllarını kapsayacak şekilde 28 OECD ülke için analiz edilmiştir. Öncelikle ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığı incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgularda yatay kesit bağımlılığı olmasından dolayı birim kök testi ve eşbütünleşme testlerinin ikinci nesil test olması gerekmektedir. Bu nedenle ikinci nesil birim kök testiyle (Pesaran CADF (2007)) eşbütünleşme testi (Westerlund Durbin-H (2008)) kullanılmıştır. Ortaya çıkan sonuçlarda petrol tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Çalışmanın son aşamasında ise uzun dönem eşbütünleşme katsayılarının tahmini Common Correlated Effect (CCE) yardımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlarda, esneklik katsayısı 0.279 olarak bulunmuştur, böylece petrol tüketimi ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu yönde etkilemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Petrol tüketimi, Ekonomik büyüme, Panel veri analizi, OECD

Oil Consumption and Growth: Panel Data Analysis on OECD Countries

In this study, the relationship between oil consumption and economic growth has been analyzed for 28 OECD countries which is covering the years 1980 to 2013. Firstly, cross section dependence among countries is examined. Due to the findings in the cross section dependency unit root test and cointegration test must be the second generation tests. For this reason, we used second generation unit root test (Pesaran CADF (2007)) and cointegration test (Westerlund Durbin-H (2008)). The result was found long run relationship between oil consumption and economic growth. At the end of the study, the long term cointegration coefficients were estimated with Common Correlated Effect (CCE). In the results obtained, the coefficient of elasticity is found to be 0.279, so that oil consumption affects economic growth positively.

Keywords:

Oil consumption, Economic growth, Panel data analysis, OECD,

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