Kamu sektörünün beşerî sermaye birikimindeki rolünün analiz edilmesi: Türkiye örneği

Beşerî sermayenin ülkelerarası gelişmişlik farklarını açıklamada en önemli faktörlerden birisi olduğu tartışılmaz bir gerçek olarak kabul edilmekte, uzun dönem sürekli büyümenin yegâne kaynağı olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Bu yüzden beşerî sermaye birikiminin artırılması ekonomiler için son derece önemli bir misyon haline gelmiştir. Teorik ve ampirik literatür beşerî sermaye birikiminin artırılmasında kamu harcamalarının önemli bir rol üstlenebileceğini vurgulamaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada Türkiye için Kamu harcamalarının beşerî sermaye birikimi üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca Kişi başına gelir, işsizlik ve nüfus değişkenleri de literatürde beşerî sermaye birikiminin önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğu için tahmin edilen modele dahil edilmiştir. Analizde 1960-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler arasında uzun dönem eş bütünleşme ilişkisi belirlenmiş ve uzun dönem eş bütünleşme katsayıları FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR tahmincileri ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye’de kamu harcamalarının beşerî sermaye birikimini negatif etkilediğini ortaya koymuştur. Benzer bir şekilde işsizlikteki artış da beşerî sermayeyi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Ancak kişi başına düşen gelir ve nüfus beşerî sermaye artışına katkı sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada ampirik sonuçların muhtemel nedenleri etraflıca tartışılmakta ve buna göre politika önerileri geliştirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kamu harcamaları, Beşerî sermaye, Kişi başı gelir, İşsizlik, Nüfus

Analysing the role of public sector in human capital accumulation: The case of Turkey

Human capital is considered as one of the most important factors in explaining development differences between countries, and as a unique source of long-run permanent economic growth. Therefore, increasing the accumulation of human capital has become an extremely important mission for economies. Theoretical and empirical literature emphasizes that public expenditures can play an important role in increasing human capital accumulation. Therefore, in this study, the effect of public expenditures on human capital accumulation for the case of Turkey was analyzed. Besides per capita income, unemployment and population variables were also included in the estimated model since they are considered as important determinants of human capital accumulation in the literature. Annual data for the period 1960-2019 were used in the analysis. The long-run cointegration relationship between the variables was determined and the long-run cointegration coefficients were obtained by applying FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimators. Results show that public expenditures negatively affect human capital accumulation. Similarly, the increase in unemployment negatively affects human capital. However, per capita income and population are helpful to promote human capital. Probable causes of empirical outputs for the case of Turkey are further discussed in the study and policy strategies are recommended accordingly.

Keywords:

Public expenditures, Human capital, Per capita income, Unemployment, Population,

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