Harika Akalın, Serap Ulusam Seçkiner, Yunus Eroğlu

Stokastik sınır analizi kullanarak rüzgâr türbinleri için etkinlik değerlendirmesi

Bu çalışmada, Stokastik Sınır Analizi (SSA) tekniği, hâlihazırda işletmede olan bir rüzgâr çiftliğinde üretim etkinliğini ölçmek için kullanılmıştır. Mevcut literatürde çeşitli alanlarda yaygın olarak uygulanan bir etkinlik ölçüm tekniği olan SSA, rüzgâr türbinlerinin etkinlik ölçümlerinde daha önce kullanılmamıştır. SSA’nın stokastik yapısı, sınır sapmalarının hem işletmenin kontrolünde olmayan dış etkileri hem de teknik etkinsizliği içermesi onun anahtar özelliğidir. Önerilen yaklaşım, dört farklı senaryo altında her bir türbinin birbirlerine göre etkinliklerini ve rüzgâr çiftliğinin tamamının etkinliğini hesaplamak için kullanılmıştır. Bu senaryolar, çeşitli girdi parametrelerinin etkinlik üzerindeki etkisini ölçmek için oluşturulmuştur. Dolayısıyla, bu çalışmanın diğer bir amacı da farklı girdi senaryoları ile bir rüzgâr türbininin etkinliğini ölçmek için hangi faktörlerin ne kadar etkili olduğunu açıklamaktır. Ayrıca, bu dört senaryo, aylık ortalama veriler, on iki aylık veriler ve yirmi dört aylık veriler olmak üzere üç farklı zaman periyodunda çalışılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda farklı girdi gruplarına göre farklı etkinlik skorları elde edilmiştir. Etkinlik kayıplarının istatiksel sapmadan mı yoksa etkinsizlikten mi kaynaklandığı SSA yönteminin avantajı gereği yorumlanabilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Rüzgâr türbini, performans değerlendirme, stokastik sınır analizi

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