Fatih ÇAVDUR, Aslı SEBATLI SAĞLAM, Merve KÖSE KÜÇÜK

Geçici-afet-müdahale tesisleri yerleşimi için senaryo-tabanlı bir karar destek sistemi

Afet operasyonları yönetimi, belirsizlik ve zaman baskısı altında kaos ortamında gerçekleştirilmektedir. Dolayısıyla, karar verme süreçlerinde bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin kullanılmasına ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, afet operasyonları yönetimindeki önemli problemlerden birisi olan yardım malzemesi dağıtımı amacıyla geçici-afet-müdahale tesisleri yerleşimi için bağımsız çalışabilen bir karar destek sistemi geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen karar destek sistemi; veri tabanı, karar mekanizması ve kullanıcı arayüzü olmak üzere üç ana kısımdan oluşmaktadır. Karar destek sistemi ile senaryo-tabanlı bir yaklaşım kullanılarak farklı afet-sonrası durumlarındaki olası belirsizlikleri dikkate alarak geçici-afet-müdahale tesisleri yerleşimi yapılabilmesi sağlanmaktadır. Böylelikle, afet operasyonları yöneticilerinin afet öncesinde ve esnasında kritik kararları almalarında yardımcı olacak farklı senaryoları oluşturmalarına ve sonuçlarını analiz etmelerine imkan sunulmaktadır. Senaryo tanımlama sürecinde, farklı etkilenen nüfus oranı ve planlama periyodu değerlerinin dikkate alınmasına ek olarak, çeşitli problem parametrelerinin kombinasyonundan oluşan model konfigürasyonları tanımlanmaktadır. Makale kapsamında sunulan örnek bir afet durumu ile uygulama yapılmış olmakla birlikte, sistemin esnekliği istenen sayıda farklı afet durumu için farklı senaryolar altında kullanılabilmesine olanak sağlamaktadır. Karar destek sisteminin kullanıcı-dostu arayüzü sayesinde çeşitli afet senaryoları için elde edilen sonuçlara ait raporlar kullanıcıya anlaşılır bir şekilde sunulmaktadır. Geliştirilen sistemin yardım malzemesi dağıtımı amacıyla geçici-afet-müdahale tesisleri yerleşiminde karar vericiler için kullanışlı bir araç olabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İnsani yardım lojistiği, tesis yerleşimi, yardım malzemesi dağıtımı, karar destek sistemleri, matematiksel programlama

A scenario-based decision support system for allocating temporary-disaster-response facilities

Disaster operations management is carried out in a chaotic environment under uncertainty and time pressure. Therefore, it is necessary to use information and communication technologies in the decision making processes. In this study, a standalone decision support system is developed for temporary-disaster-response facilities allocation for relief supplies distribution as one of the important problems in disaster operations management. The decision support system consists of three main components as its database, decision engine and user interface. It is noted that the decision support system allows decision makers to allocate temporary-disaster-response facilities under many different disaster situations by utilizing a scenario-based approach. Thus, disaster operations managers are given the opportunity to create different scenarios and analyze the results that will help them make critical decisions before and during the disaster. In the scenario definition process, in addition to taking into account different values of affected population rate and planning period, some model configurations consisting of the combinations of various problem parameters are also defined. Although it is illustrated with a specific example case in this paper, the flexibility of the system allows its users to consider other cases with different scenarios. Due to the user-friendly interface of the decision support system, reports of the results obtained for various disaster scenarios are presented to the user in an understandable way. The proposed system might be a useful tool to help decision makers in allocating temporary-disaster-response facilities for relief supplies distribution.

Keywords:

Humanitarian logistics, facility allocation, relief supplies distribution, decision support systems, mathematical programming,

PDF

___

Caunhye A.M., Nie X., Pokharel S., Optimization models in emergency logistics: A literature review, Socio-economic planning sciences, 46 (1), 4-13, 2012.
Kovacs G., Spens K.M., Humanitarian logistics in disaster relief operations, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 37 (2), 99-114, 2007.
Natarajarathinam M., Capar I., Narayanan A., Managing supply chains in times of crisis: a review of literature and insights, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 39 (7), 535-573, 2009.
Sheu J.B., Challenges of emergency logistics management, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 43 (6), 655-659, 2007.
Balcik B., Beamon B.M., Facility location in humanitarian relief, International Journal of Logistics, 11 (2), 101-121, 2008.
Cavdur F., Kose-Kucuk M., Sebatli A., Allocation of temporary disaster response facilities under demand uncertainty: An earthquake case study, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 19, 159-166, 2016.
Kilci F., Kara B.Y., Bozkaya B., Locating temporary shelter areas after an earthquake: A case for Turkey, European Journal of Operational Research, 243 (1), 323-332, 2015.
Mete H.O., Zabinsky Z.B., Stochastic optimization of medical supply location and distribution in disaster management, International Journal of Production Economics, 126 (1), 76-84, 2010.
Murali P., Ordonez F., Dessouky M.M., Facility location under demand uncertainty: Response to a large-scale bio-terror attack, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 46 (1), 78-87, 2012.
Noyan N., Balcik B., Atakan S., A stochastic optimization model for designing last mile relief networks, Transportation Science, 50 (3), 1092-1113, 2015.
Rawls C.G., Turnquist M.A., Pre-positioning of emergency supplies for disaster response, Transportation research part B: Methodological, 44 (4), 521-534, 2010.
Rawls C.G., Turnquist M.A., Pre-positioning planning for emergency response with service quality constraints, OR spectrum, 33 (3), 481-498, 2011.
Cavdur F., Sebatli A., A decision support tool for allocating temporary-disaster-response facilities, Decision Support Systems, 127, 113145, 2019.
Cavdur F., Sebatli-Saglam A., Kose-Kucuk M., A spreadsheet-based decision support tool for temporary-disaster-response facilities allocation, Safety Science, 124, 104581, 2020.
Thompson S.M., Altay N., Green W.G., Lapetina J., Improving disaster response efforts with decision support systems, International Journal of Emergency Management, 3 (4), 250-263, 2006.
Ortuno M.T., Cristobal P., Ferrer J.M., Martin-Campo F.J., Munoz S., Tirado G., Vitoriano B., Decision aid models and systems for humanitarian logistics. A survey, Decision aid models for disaster management and emergencies, Editör: Vitoriano B., Montero J., Ruan D., Atlantis Press, Paris, 17-44, 2013.
Fiedrich F., Gehbauer F., Rickers U., Optimized resource allocation for emergency response after earthquake disasters, Safety science, 35 (1-3), 41-57, 2000.
Ahmad S., Simonovic, S.P., An intelligent decision support system for management of floods, Water Resources Management, 20 (3), 391-410, 2006.
Rolland E., Patterson R.A., Ward K., Dodin B., Decision support for disaster management, Operations Management Research, 3 (1-2), 68-79, 2010.
Alvear D., Abreu O., Cuesta A., Alonso V., Decision support system for emergency management: Road tunnels, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 34, 13-21, 2013.
Haynes S.R., Kannampallil T.G., Cohen M.A., Soares A., Ritter F.E., Rampart: A service and agent-based architecture for anti-terrorism planning and resource allocation, Intelligence and Security Informatics, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 260-270, 2008.
Lorca A., Celik M., Ergun O., Keskinocak P., A decision-support tool for post-disaster debris operations, Procedia Engineering, 107, 154-167, 2015.
Hobeika A.G., Kim S., Beckwith, R.E., A decision support system for developing evacuation plans around nuclear power stations, Interfaces, 24 (5), 22-35, 1994.
Tufekci S., An integrated emergency management decision support system for hurricane emergencies, Safety Science, 20 (1), 39-48, 1995.
Hadiguna R.A., Kamil I., Delati A., Reed R., Implementing a web-based decision support system for disaster logistics: A case study of an evacuation location assessment for Indonesia, International journal of disaster risk reduction, 9, 38-47, 2014.
Chang M.S., Tseng Y.L., Chen J.W., A scenario planning approach for the flood emergency logistics preparation problem under uncertainty, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 43 (6), 737-754, 2007.
De Silva F.N., Eglese R.W., Integrating simulation modelling and GIS: spatial decision support systems for evacuation planning, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 51 (4), 423-430, 2000.
Sahebjamnia N., Torabi S.A., Mansouri S.A., A hybrid decision support system for managing humanitarian relief chains, Decision Support Systems, 95, 12-26, 2017.
Özdamar L., Ekinci E., Küçükyazıcı B., Emergency logistics planning in natural disasters, Annals of operations research, 129 (1-4), 217-245, 2004.
Kondaveti R., Ganz A., Decision support system for resource allocation in disaster management, Annual International Conference of the IEEE, 3425-3428, Eylül, 2009.
Rekik M., Ruiz A., Renaud J., Berkoune D., Paquet, S., A decision support system for humanitarian network design and distribution operations, Humanitarian and relief logistics, Editör: Zeimpekis V., Ichoua S., Minis I., Springer, New York, 1-20, 2013.
Fikar C., Gronalt M., Hirsch P., A decision support system for coordinated disaster relief distribution, Expert Systems with Applications, 57, 104-116, 2016.