Politik İstikrarsızlık Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi:Kuznets Eğrisi Yaklaşımı*

Ekonomi ve politika sürekli olarak karşilikli bir etkileşim içerisindedir. Özellikle ekonomik değişkenlerle demokratikleşme arasinda ilişki hakkinda kesin bir yargiya varilamamasi, politik istikrarsizlik ile ekonomik değişkenler arasinda ortaya çikan ilişkilerin incelenmesinin gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadir. Son dönemdeki çalişmalarda salt demokratikleşme bileşenleri yerine daha geniş bileşenleri kapsayan politik istikrar ya da politik istikrarsizlik değişkenleri kullanilmaktadir. Bu çalişmanin temel amaci; Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha siklikla yaşanan politik istikrarsizliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini panel veri analiz yöntemi ile incelemektir. Söz konusu ilişki "Politik İstikrarsizlik-Büyüme Kuznets Eğrisi" yaklaşimi ile analiz edilmiştir. Politik istikrarsizlik belli bir düzeyi aştiğinda büyümenin nispi olarak azaldiği, ilgili ülkenin yapisina, sorunlarini aşma kapasitesine bağli olarak istikrarsizlik belli bir düzeye çekildiğinde ise büyümenin olumlu yönde bir gelişme sergilediği sonucuna ulaşilmiştir. Durum, fonksiyonel anlamda, kübik bir yapi ile açiklanabilir.

Relationship Between Political Instability and Economic Growth: Kuznets Curve Approach

Economy and policy are always in mutual interaction. Especially the fact that sharp judgement between economical variables and democratization cannot be put forward shows that the relationship between political instability and economical variables should be analysed. In recent studies political stability or instability variables including more comprehensive variables instead of democratization variables have been used. The main aim of this study is to analyse the effects of political instability, which is usually seen in developing countries, on economic growth via panel data analysis. The relationship is analysed by the "Political Instability - Growth Kuznet's Curve" approach. It has been concluded that when political instability exceeds a certain level, growth rate diminishes and that when political instability is controlled at a bearable level in connection with certain factors such as the structure of the country and the ability of her to cope with the problems, growth rate is affected positively. The case is explained by a cubic structure in functional sense.

___

ABDIWELI, M. Ali (2001); "Political Instability, Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: An Emprical Investigation", Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol: 29, pp. 87-106.
ACEMOĞLU, Daron, James A. ROBİNSON (2002); "The Political Economy of the Kuznets Curve", Review of Development Economics, Vol:6(2); pp. 183-203.
ALESINA, Alberto and Beatrice WEDER (1999); Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid, NBER.
ALESINA, Alberto and Roberto PEROTTI (1996); Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment, European Economic Review , 40, pp. 1203-1228.
ASTERIOU, Dimitrios and Simon PRICE (2001); "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol: 48 No:4, pp. 383- 399.
ASTERIOU, Dimitrios, ECONOMIDES, George, PHILIPOPOULOS, Apostolis and Simon PRICE (2000); "Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth, www.aueb.gr/users/ gecon/Asteriou%20et%20al.%20(2000).pdf, City University.
BALTAGI, Badi (2001); Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Second Edt. John Wiley&Sons International, England.
BARRO, J. Robert (1991); "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106,pp. 407-443
BARRO, J. Robert and J. Wha LEE, (1994); Sources of Economic Growth, Canegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy
BOHN, Frank (2002); Public Finance under Political Instability and Debt Conditionality,Economics Discussion Paper 540, University of Essex, UK.
BRUNETTI, Aymo (1998) "Political Variables in Growth Regressions", Volatility, Uncertainty, Instability and Growth, http:// www.rrojasdatabank.org/borner/borner6.pdf,
CAMPOS, F. Nauro and B. Jeffrey NUGENT (2002); "Who is Afraid of Political Instability?", Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 67, pp. 157-172.
CHONG, Alberto (2001); Inequality, Democracy and Persistence: Is There a Political Kuznets Curve?, Inter American Development Bank, WP 445.
CUKIERMAN, Alex, EDWARDS, Sebastian and Guido TABELLINI, (1992); "Seignorage and Political Instability", American Economic Review, 82, pp. 537-555.
DINDA, Soumyananda (2004); "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey", Ecological Economics, Vol:49, pp. 431- 455.
EASTERLY, William and Sergio REBELO (1993); "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth", Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, pp. 417-458.
EDIN, Per-Anders and Henry OHLSSON, (1991); "Political Determinants of Budget Deficit: Coalition Effects Versus Minority Effects", Europan Economic Review, 35, pp. 1597-1603.
EREN, Ercan ve Melike BİLDİRİCİ (2001); "Türkiye'de Siyasal ve İktisadi İstikrarsızlık; 1980-2001", İşletme ve Finans, 187, ss. 27-33.
EUSUFZAI, Zaki (1997);"The Kuznets Hypothesis: An Indirect Test", Economic Letters, Vol:54, pp. 81-85.
FIELDING, David (1999); Economic Consequences of the Intifada: Investment and Political Instability in Israel, University of Leicester , http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/ leecon/econ00-2.pdf.
FRANTZEN, Dirk (2002); "Intersectoral and International R&D Knowledge Spillovers and Total Factor Productivity", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49:3, pp. 280-303.
FRANZESE, Robert J. (1998); Are Budget Deficit Used Strategically, University of Michigan, http://www-personal.umich. edu/~ranzese/DebtPaper.Short.pdf.
GRENE, William H. (2003); Econometric Analysis, 5. Edt., Prentice Hall International, New Jersey.
GRILLI, Vittorio, MASCIANDARO, Donato, and Guido TABELLINI (1991); "Political and Monetary Instutions and Public Policies in ther Industrial Countries", Economic Policy, 13, pp. 341-392.
GÜVEL, Enver Alper (1998); "Türkiye Ekonomisinin Kısa Dö- nem Analizi (1987-1997): Makro Politikalar ve Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme", Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8, ss. 17-42.
İNSEL, Ahmet (1991); "Siyasal Bir Süreç Olarak İktisadi Kalkınma II", Birikim, Sayı: 21, ss. 12-23.
KHAN, M. S., A.S. SENHADJI (2001); Treshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth, IMF Staff Papers 48(1).
KUZNETS, Simon (1955); "Economic Growth and Income Inequality", The American Economic Review, Vol:45, No:1, pp. 1-28
LENSINK, Robert, HERMES, Niels ve Victor MURINDE (2000); "Capital Flight and Political Risk", Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, pp. 73-92.
MADDALA, G. S. (1999) "On the Use of Panel Data Methods with Cross-Country Data", Annales D'Economie et de Statistique, 55-56, 1999, pp. 429-448.
ÖZLER, Şule and Guido TABELLINI, (1991); "External Debt and Political Instability", Working Paper, NBER.
PAZARLIOĞLU, M. Vedat ve Özlem Kiren GÜRLER (2007); "Telekomünikasyon Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı", Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, Sayı:508, Yıl:44, İzmir, ss. 36-44.
PEROTTI, Roberto (1996); Growth, Income Distribution and Democracy: What the Data Say, Journal of Economic Growth, 1, pp. 149-187.
PEROTTI, Roberto, and Yianos KONTOPOULOS (1999); Fragmented Fiscal Policy, Columbia University, http://www.columbia.edu/~rp41/webfragm.pdf. Quantitative Micro Software, EViews 5 User's Guide, 2004.
ROMER, David (1996); Advanced Macroecenomics, McGraw -Hill, Singapore.
ROUBINI, N. (1991); "Economic and Political Determinants of Budget Deficit in Developing Countries", Journal of International Money and Finance, 10, pp. 549-572.
SALA-I MARTIN, Xavier (1997); I Just run Four Million Regressions, NBER Working Paper No: 4186.
STEVENS, Guy (2000); Politics, Economics and Investment: Explaining Plant and Equipment Spending by US Direct Investors in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 153-183.
SVENSSON, Jakop (1998); Investment, Property Rights, Political Instability: Theory and Evidence, European Economic Rewiev, 42, pp. 1317-1341.
ŞİMŞEK, Nevzat (2005); Endüstri-İçi Dış Ticaret (Türkiye'nin Endüstri-İçi Dış Ticaretinin Analizi); DEÜ SBE, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, İzmir.
TELATAR, Erdinç ve Funda TELATAR (2004); "Standart IMF İstikrar Politikaları: Politik İstikrarsızlığa Yol Açan Bir Kanal" İşletme ve Finans, 215, ss. 53-65.
TELATAR, Funda (2003); "Türkiye'de Politika Değişkenliği İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri", İşletme ve Finans, 211, ss. 71-91.
TÜSİAD (2002); Enflasyon ve Büyüme Dinamikleri, İstanbul.