Kamu Büyüklüğü ve Kişi Başına Gelir Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1968-2005)

Uzunca bir süredir ikinci planda tutulan maliye politikasina olan ilgi son dönemlerde yeniden artmaya başlamiştir. Buna paralel olarak literatürde yer alan kamu harcamalarinin ekonomik büyümeyi canlandiracaği fikri tekrar tartişilmaya başlanmiştir. Bu çalişma Türkiye'de 1968-2005 dönemi için kişi başina gelir, kamu harcamalari veya daha genel bir ifadeyle kamu kesimi büyüklüğü arasindaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştirmaktadir. Ayrica ticari açikliğin kamu harcamalarinda artişa neden olacağini ileri süren Telafi Hipotezinden (Compensation Hypothesis) hareketle ticari açiklik da modele dahil edilmiştir. Nedensellik ilişkilerini belirleyebilmek için Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafindan geliştirilen Granger nedensellik testi kullanilmiştir. VAR Modeli tahmin edilerek yürütülen çalişmada kişi başina gelir ve kamu büyüklüğü arasinda çift yönlü, ticari açikliktan kamu büyüklüğüne ve kişi başina gelirden ticari açikliğa doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Causality Relationship Between Government Size And Per Capita Income: Turkish Case (1968-2005)

Recently, there has been a significant resurgence of interest in fiscal policy that has not been on agenda for a long time. Idea that public expenditure stimulus economic growth has been started to discuss in literature. This paper examines causal linkages among per capita income and government spending or more generally the size of the public sector for 1968-2005 in Turkey. In addition, public expenditures increased trade openness will lead to the hypothesis suggested by the Compensation Hypothesis were included in the model with the trade openness. To determine causal linkages is estimated Granger non-causality method developed Toda and Yamamoto (1995). By estimating a VAR model, we have found that there are bi-directional causality between per capita income and government size and unidirectional causalities from trade openness to government size and from per capita income to trade openness.

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