Geçiş Sürecinde Başlangıç Koşullarının Etkileri: BDT Ülkeleri Örneği

Bir ülkenin ekonomik olarak geçiş sürecinde başlangıç koşullarının ve o ülkenin sahip olduğu ekonomik durum, doğal kaynaklara sahiplik, tarihsel geçmiş ve kurumların etkili olduğu birçok araştırmacı tarafından kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalış- mada aynı dönemde geçiş sürecine başlayan eski Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birliği (SSCB) ülkelerinden Ermenistan, Azerbaycan, Gürcistan, Moldova, Belarus, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Tacikistan, Türkmenistan, Özbekistan, Rusya ve Ukrayna'nın başlangıç koşullarının geçiş sürecine etkisini Faktör Analizi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre şehirleşme, kişi başına düşen gelir, endüstrileşme oranı, doğal kaynaklara sahiplik ve büyüme oranı ülkelerin başlangıç koşullarını açıklayan değişkenler olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar aynı zamanda bu ülkelerin başlangıç döneminden itibaren 2014 yılına kadar gösterdikleri ekonomik performanslar ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular Rusya, Ukrayna, Ermenistan ve Belarus'un şehirleşme, kişi başına düşen gelir, endüstrileş- me oranı kriterlerine göre geçiş sürecine avantajlı bir konumda başladığını göstermektedir.

The Impact of Initial Conditions on Transition Period: the Case of CIS Countries

There is a general agreement in literature on the view that initial conditions and economic situation of a country, the possession of natural resources, historical background and institutions affect the process of economic transition. This paper analyses the impact of initial conditions on the transition period for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Russia and Ukraine using Factor Analysis. The empirical results show that the variables such as urbanization, per capita GNP, the rate of industrialization, the possession of natural resources and growth rate explain the initial conditions of these countries. The findings are also compared to economic performance of these countries from the beginning of the transition till 2014. It is observed that Russia, Ukraine, Armenia and Belarus entered to the transition period under favorable conditions according to the urbanization, per capita GNP, the degree of industry criteria.

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