Burak DARICI, Ahmet AYDIN, Hacı Mehmet TAŞÇI

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ULUSLARARASI TURİZM TALEBİNİ ETKİLEYEN EKONOMİK FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1996(1)-2013(4) döneminde Türkiyeye yönelik uluslararası turizm talebini etkileyen ekonomik faktörleri araştırmaktır. Bu kapsamda, Türkiyeye gelen turist sayısı itibariyle en yüksek paya sahip ilk beş ülke için bir panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Literatürde turizmtalebinin belirleyicileri içinde en çok yer verilen makroekonomik değişkenler milli gelir, fiyatlar,taşıma maliyetleri ve döviz kurlarıdır. Bu çalışmada da literatürde yer alan bu temel değişkenleresas alınmıştır. Değişkenlere ait ön-testler (yatay-kesit bağımlılığı, durağanlık ve uzun dönemilişkinin olup olmadığı) yapılmış, kurulan ekonometrik model tahmin edilmiş ve Türkiyeye yönelikturizm talebinin belirleyicileri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Turizm fiyatları ve seyahat maliyetleriile turizm talebi arasında beklendiği gibi negatif ve güçlü, döviz kurları ile turizm talebi arasındaise pozitif ve güçlü ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu bulgular, literature ile uyumludur. Türkiyeye turistgönderen ülkelerin milli geliri ile Türkiyeye yönelik turizm talebi arasında ise negatif ve güçlüilişki bulunmuştur. Literatür ile farklı olan bu durum, Türkiye turizm sektörü için önemli bir sorunaişaret etmektedir.

ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISM DEMAND: AN EMPIRICAL APPLICATION ON TURKEY

The main purpose of the study is to investigate the main factors that determine the tourismdemand to Turkey. For this aim, we employed panel data methods on turizm demand data of first- five countries which have the highest share with respect to the number of tourists coming to Turkey.The main determinants of tourism demand cited in the literature cover macroeconomic variables,such as gdp, price level, transportation and other costs, exchange rate and etc. In this study, afterhaving carried out the pre-estimation tests (cross-sectional dependence, stationarity and co-integra- tion tests) on the panel data, the estimation results of the econometric model to determine the tour- ism demand to Turkey is discussed. We find, as expected from the literature, that transportationcosts and inflation have negative effects on tourism demand, whereas exchange rate has a positiveeffect on tourism demand. However, per capita GDP of tourist sending country has a negative andstrong effect on tourism demand. This is in contrast to findings in the literature and can be consid- ered as an indicator of a significant problem in the tourism sector in Turkey.
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Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1301-3688
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 1981
  • Yayıncı: -
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