TÜRKİYE’DE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİNİN DİNAMİKLERİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: SINIR TESTİ VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi iki önemli kontrol değişkeni (ihracat ve yatırım) kullanarak araştırmaktadır. Ampirik uygulamada değişkenler arasında eş bütünleşmenin varlığı doğrulanmış ve ekonomik büyüme, ihracat ve yatırım değişkenlerinin uzun dönemde elektrik tüketimi üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, elektrik tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü Granger nedensellik sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de enerji kaynaklarını korumaya yönelik elektrik tüketimini azaltıcı (konservatif) politikaların ve elektrik arzında ortaya çıkabilecek daralmaların ekonomik büyümeyi azaltabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle politika uygulayıcıları artan elektrik talebini karşılamak için enerji üretimini artırıcı ve tasarruf edici ileri teknolojileri benimsemeli ve yeni enerji kaynaklarını geliştirici projeleri desteklemelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Elektrik Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL, Türkiye.

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This study investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey by using two important control variables (exports and investment). In the empirical application, the existence of co-integration between variables is verified and it has shown that economic growth, exports and investment in the long term variables have a positive effect on electricity consumption. In addition, it has been concluded that there is a unidirectional "Granger causality" from the electricity consumption to economic growth. This result shows that consumption policies (conservative) and contraction in the electricity supply that are prepared to protect sources of energy to reduce electricity consumption might reduce economic growth in Turkey. Therefore, policy makers should adopt advanced technologies which increase energy production and saving in order to meet growing electricity demand, and should also support projects which develop new energy resources

Keywords:

Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth, ARDL, Turkey,

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