LATİN AMERİKA ÜLKELERİNDE BÜTÇE AÇIĞI VE ENFLASYON ARASINDAKİ EŞ BÜTÜNLEŞME İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Bu çalışma bütçe açığının uzun dönemde enflasyona neden olup-olmadığını analiz etmektedir. İktisat teorisine göre gelişmekte olan ülkelerde meydana gelen bütçe açıkları enflasyonist sonuçlar doğurabilmektedir. Eğer bütçe açıkları para basma (monetizasyon) yoluyla kapatılmışsa, artan para arzının enflasyona yol açacağı kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada enflasyon ve bütçe açığı arasındaki ilişki 1980-2011 arası dönemde az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan 19 Latin Amerika ve Karayip ülkesi için panel eş bütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modeli ile test edilmektedir. Çalışmanın ampirik sonuçlarına göre, kısa dönemde bütçe açıkları enflasyonun nedeni olmasa da uzun dönemde aralarında pozitif bir ilişki mevcuttur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enflasyon, Bütçe Açığı, Panel Veri, Eş Bütünleşme Analizi

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This paper aims to analyze the empirical relationship among budget deficit and inflation for the Latin American and Caribbean Countries over the period 1980-2011, annually. According to economic theory, especially in developing countries fiscal imbalances result in inflation. Therefore, if budget deficit is financed through monetarisation, then rising money supply could lead to inflation in these countries. In this paper, we are analyzing the relationship between budget deficit and inflation for nineteen less developed and developing Latin and Caribbean Countries. We are using panel data cointegration analysis to figure out the relationship between inflation and budget deficit. According to empirical results of the study, in the long-term there is a positive relationship between budget deficits and inflation, while in the short-term budget deficits is not the cause of inflation

Keywords:

Inflation Budget Deficit, Panel Data, Cointegration Analysis, Latin American,

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