Gün Öncesi Piyasasında Sanal Güç Santralinin Yenilenebilir Üretim Belirsizliklerini ve Risk Değerlendirmesini Göz Önünde Bulundurarak Optimum İşletilmesi

Teknolojinin hızla büyümesi ile artan fosil yakıt tüketimine bağlı olarak oluşan hava kirliliği ve küresel ısınma, bir çok ülke için büyük sorun oluşturan problemlerdendir. Bu sorunlarla başa çıkmak için, yenilenebilir kaynakları içeren dağıtık enerji kaynakları (DEK), modern güç sistemlerine geleneksel üretime alternatif olarak eklenmektedirler. Bununla birlikte, rüzgâr enerjisi ve fotovoltaik enerji gibi bazı kaynakların belirsiz doğası, güç sisteminin değişken çıkışına ve kararsızlığına yol açmaktadır. Sanal Güç Santrali (SGS), güç sistemindeki bu zorlukların üstesinden gelmek için uygun bir çözümdür. SGS, yenilenebilir ve yakıt bazlı üretim sistemleri, depolama sistemleri ve yönetilebilir yüklerden oluşan dağıtık enerji kaynaklarını bir araya toplamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, bir Rüzgâr Enerjisi Santrali (RES), bir Fotovoltaik Enerji Santrali (FVES), bir Konvansiyonel Enerji Santrali (KES) ve bir Pompaj Depolamalı Hidroelektrik Santral (PDHS) içeren bir SGS'nin optimum işletme stratejisi, Gün Öncesi Piyasasında (GÖP) maksimum kâr elde edecek şekilde belirlenmiştir. Kesintili yenilenebilir enerji üretimi için belirsizlik analizi, belirsiz parametrelerin (rüzgâr hızı ve güneş radyasyonu) geçmiş verilere dayanan senaryolarla modellenmesi ile yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, düşük kâr senaryoları riski, bir risk ölçütü olan Koşullu Riske Maruz Değer (CVaR) kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

sanal güç santrali, gün öncesi piyasası, kâr, belirsizlik, risk

Optimal Operation of a Virtual Power Plant in a Day Ahead Market Considering Uncertainties of Renewable Generation and Risk Evaluation

The air pollution and global warming because of the increasing usage of fossil fuels with the rapid growth of technology are one of the major problems for many countries. To cope with these problems, distributed energy resources (DERs) including renewable sources are adding into the modern power systems as an alternative to traditional generation. However, the uncertain nature of some sources such as wind power and photovoltaic power leads to variable output and instability of the power system. Virtual Power Plant (VPP) is a convenient solution to overcome these challenges in the power system. It aggregates various DERs including renewable-based and fueled-based generation, storage systems and dispatchable loads. In this study, optimum operating strategy of a VPP consisting of a Wind Power Plant (WPP), a Photovoltaic Power Plant (PVPP), a Conventional Power Plant (CPP) and a Pumped Hydro Storage Plant (PHSP) is determined to maximize the profit in a Day Ahead Market (DAM). The uncertainty analysis for the intermittent renewable power generation is made by modeling the uncertain parameters (wind speed and solar radiation) with scenarios based upon historical data. Moreover, the risk of low profit scenarios is evaluated by using Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure.

Keywords:

virtual power plant, day ahead market, profit, uncertainty, risk,

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