Enerji Arz Güvenliği, Petrol Fiyatları ve Pay Piyasalarında Nedensellik İlişkisi: BRICS-T Örneği

Çalışmanın amacı enerji arz güvenliği kavramı merkezinde enerji piyasaları ve finansal piyasalar arasındaki dinamik ilişkileri incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, BRICS-T ülkeleri için (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin, G. Afrika ve Türkiye) 1994-2018 dönemi yıllık verilerini kapsayan borsa endeksi, petrol fiyatı ve uluslararası enerji güvenliği risk endeks puanı kullanılmış ve söz konusu ilişkiyi araştırmak için Toda & Yamamoto (TY) ve Fourier Toda & Yamamoto (FTY) nedensellik yöntemlerinden yararlanılarak değişkenler analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, (i) Brezilya hariç bütün ülkelerde pay senedi piyasasından enerji güvenliği riskine ve yalnızca Türkiye’de enerji güvenliği riskinden pay senedi piyasasına nedensellik, (ii) Çin ile Türkiye’de enerji güvenliği riski ile petrol fiyatı arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını gösterirken, ancak Brezilya’da ise petrol fiyatından enerji güvenliği riskine nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, böylelikle, BRICS-T ülkeleri için enerji-finans ilişkisinde, finansal piyasaların enerji güvenliği riski açısından önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, bu ülkelerin finans piyasalarından kaynaklı belirsizlik ve risklerin, enerji güvenliği politikalarında dikkate alınması gerektiği yönünde bir çıkarsama içermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enerji Arz Güvenliği, Petrol Fiyatı, Pay Senedi Piyasaları, Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler, Nedensellik

Causality Relationship in Energy Supply Security, Oil Prices and Stock Markets: BRICS-T Example

The aim of the study is to examine the dynamic relations between energy markets and financial markets in the center of the concept of energy supply security. In this direction, the stock market index, oil price and international energy security risk index score covering the annual data for the 1994-2018 period for the BRICS-T countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa and Turkey) were used and Toda & Yamamoto to investigate the aforementioned relationship. (TY) and Fourier Toda & Yamamoto (FTY) causality methods were used to analyze the variables. While empirical findings show (i) causality from stock market to energy security risk in all countries except Brazil, and from energy security risk to stock market only in Turkey, (ii) mutual causality between energy security risk and oil price in China and Turkey, however, in Brazil, it shows that there is causality from oil price to energy security risk. The findings thus reveal the importance of financial markets in terms of energy security risk in the energy-finance relationship for BRICS-T countries. This result includes an inference that the uncertainty and risks arising from the financial markets of these countries should be taken into account in their energy security policies.

Keywords:

Energy Supply Security, Oil Price, Stock Market, Emerging Markets, Causality,

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