2008 Krizi ve İşsizliğe Etkisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama: N-11 Ülkeleri

Küresel finansal kriz tüm dünya ekonomilerini olumsuz etkilemiştir. 2008’de meydana gelen küresel finansal kriz nedeniyle sadece ekonomik sistem olumsuz etkilenmemiş, aynı zamanda sosyal ve kültürel hayatta da son derece yıkıcı etkiler oluştuğu gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada büyük durgunluğa neden olan küresel finansal krizin işsizlik üzerine etkileri ve büyük durgunluk döneminden sonra işsizlik histerisi etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı gelecekte dünya ekonomisinde önemli bir paya sahip olacağı düşünülen N-11 ülkelerinde büyük durgunluk öncesi ve sonrası işsizlik oranlarındaki değişimi incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Bangladeş, Mısır, Endonezya, İran, Güney Kore, Meksika, Pakistan, Nijerya, Filipinler, Vietnam ve Türkiye’nin de aralarında bulunduğu onbir ülke için 1991-2017 yılları işsizlik verileri kullanılarak Kırılmalı Genişletilmiş Dickey Fuller (ADF) testi yapılmıştır. Araştırmada uygulanan testler sonucunda İran, Pakistan, Filipinler ve Nijerya’nın işsizlik oranlarının durağan olduğu, söz konusu ülkeler için büyük durgunluktan sonra işsizlik oranlarındaki artışın kalıcı etkisini koruduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bangladeş, Meksika ve Güney Kore’nin işsizlik oranlarının ise durağan olmadığı, serilerin birim kök içerdiği tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Büyük Durgunluk, Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testi, İşsizlik, 2008 Krizi

An Application on the Impact of 2008 Crisis and Unemployment: N-11 Countries

The global financial crisis has adversely affected all world economies. Due to the global financial crisis that took place in 2008, not only did the economic system not be adversely affected, but at the same time it was observed to have had extremely devastating effects on social and culturel life. The effects of the global financial crisis on the Unemployment and the unemployment hysteria effect after the great recession were investigated in this study. The aim of this study is to examine the change in before and after the great Recession were unemployment rates in the N-11 countries, which are expected to have a significant share in the world economy in the future. For this purpose Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Pakistan, Nigeria, Philippines, Vietnam and Turkey among them found found to be broken using the 1991-2017 year of Unemployment data for eleven countries Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was applied. As a result of the carried out in the research, it has been found that the Unemployment rates of Iran, Pakistan, Philippines and Nigeria are stable and that the increase in Unemployment rates after the great Recession for countries has a lasting effect. Bangladesh, Mexico and South Korea have Unemployment rates that are not stationary, and that the series contain unit roots.

Keywords:

Great Recession, Break Unit Root Test, Unemployment, 2008 Crisis,

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