TÜRKİYE’DEKİ KONTEYNER LİMANLARININ ÇIKTISINA ÖNCÜ BİR GÖSTERGE OLARAK ENDÜSTRİYEL ÜRETİM

Bu çalışmanın amacı, limanların gelecek planlamaları için faydalı sonuçlar elde etmek için Türk limanlarındaki konteyner trafiği ile Türkiye’nin endüstriyel üretimi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini doğrusal olmayan yapıları ve muhtemel gecikmeli etkileri göz önünde bulundurarak tespit etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Diks ve Panchenko (2006) tarafından önerilen doğrusal olmayan nedensellik testi kullanılmaktadır. Veri seti Ocak 2005 ve Nisan 2019 dönemleri arasını kapsayan aylık bazda 172 gözlemden oluşmaktadır. Araştırmaya konu olan değişkenlerdeki doğrusal olmayan yapı göz önünde bulundurularak yapılan analizler sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre, endüstriyel üretim endeksinden liman çıktı hacimlerine tek yönlü anlamlı nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu ve 3 dönem (ay) boyunca etkisini sürdürdüğü tespit edilmiştir. Talep seviyesine göre gelecek üretim planlamalarındaki değişimlerin limanlara yansıması birkaç dönem sürebildiği için, bu durumun Türk üreticilerinin ithal ara mallarını üretim faaliyetlerinde yoğun olarak kullanmaları nedeniyle oluştuğu düşünülebilir. Bu sonuçların hem limanlara, hem de liman kullanıcıları ve politika belirleyicilere strateji geliştirme ve planlama konularında önemli katkılar sunacağı umulmaktadır. 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AS A LEADING INDICATOR FOR CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT IN TURKEY

The purpose of this study is to determine the causal relationship between container traffic in Turkish ports and industrial production of Turkey considering the possible nonlinear structures and lagged impacts in order to generate results which are likely to be useful for the future planning of the ports. In accordance with this purpose, the non-linear test proposed by Diks and Panchenko (2006) has been used. The dataset consists of 172 monthly observations and covers the period between January 2005 and April 2019. According to the results obtained by considering the nonlinear structures, there is a significant unidirectional causality relationship from industrial production index to port throughputs and the impact continues during 3 periods (months). This situation can be thought to be caused by the intensive use of imported intermediate goods by Turkish producers. According to the demand level, it may take several periods for the changes in the future production planning to be reflected in the ports. These results are hoped to provide significant contributions both to ports, port users and policy makers in terms of strategy development and planning. 

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