An Emprical Analysis of Accurate Budget Forecasting in Turkey

Bu çalışma ile Türkiye'de bütçe tahminlerinin doğruluğu analiz edilmektedir. 1981-2003 dönemine ait 23 yıl için kullanılan veri, gelir ve harcamalara ilişkin tahmin edilen ve gerçekleşen genel bütçe verilerine dayanmaktadır. Tek örnek istatistiği ve tek örnek t testi kullanılarak bütçe tahminlerinin doğruluğu araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular bütçe tahminlerinde tahmin hataları yapıldığını ve bu hataların istatistiksel olarak gelir tahminlerinde fazla gelir tahminine, harcama tahminlerinde ise düşük harcama tahminine yönelik bir eğilim olduğu şeklindedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye

Türkiye'de Bütçe Tahmini Doğruluğunun Ampirik Bir Analizi

This paper analyzes the accuracy of budget forecasts in Turkey. Data is based on 23 years' forecasted and materialized general budget revenues and outlays, from 1981 to 2003. One sample statistics, tabulated, and one sample t tests are applied to find out the accuracy of forecasting and the results show that there are statistically significant forecast errors and this significance, especially, indicates biases towards under-forecasting of outlays and over-forecasting of revenues.

Keywords:

Turkey,

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