İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi Büyüme Oynaklığını Etkiler mi? Ampirik Bir Analiz

Bu çalışma, güncel literatürü izleyerek, teorik bağlantıları tartışarak ve ampirik bir analiz uygulayarak, ihracat çeşitlendirmesi ve büyüme oynaklığı arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Farklı ihracat çeşitliliği endeksleri, çok sayıda ülke, çeşitli kontrol değişkenleri ve dinamik panel veri metodolojisi kullanan ampirik model, çeşitlendirmenin oynaklık üzerindeki etkileri konusunda güçlü kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Sonuçlar göstermektedir ki, ihracat sepetleri çeşitli olan ülkeler, daha düşük büyüme oynaklığına maruz kalmaktadır. Çeşitlilik endeksleri acısından, yoğun ticaret (daha dengeli ihracat sepeti) oynaklık üzerinde yaygın ticaret’e (ihraç yapan firma sayısı) göre daha etkilidir.

Does Export Diversification Lower Growth Volatility? An Empirical Analysis

This paper, following the recent literature, discussing about the theoretical connections, and applying an empirical analysis, studies the relationship between export diversification and growth volatility. Using several export diversification indices, a large number of countries, various control variables and dynamic panel data methodology, the empirical model present strong evidence on the effects of diversification on volatility. The results show that countries with a diversified export basket experience lower growth volatility. Among diversification indices, intensive margin (more balanced basket of exports) is found to have a stronger negative impact on volatility, rather than extensive margin (number of firms exporting).

Keywords:

Growth Volatility Export Diversification,

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