The Impact of Economic Factors on the 2011 Turkish General Election*

Bu çalışma 12 Haziran 2011 genel seçim sonuçlarını değerlendirmektedir. Ekonomik eğilimlerin Haziran genel seçim sonuçları üzerine etkisini il düzeyinde veri kullanarak analiz edilmektedir. Ekonometrik model tahmininde Görünürde Bağlantısız Regresyonlar kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre siyasi partiler kendi tabanlarını korumuşlardır. İl düzey- inde ekonomik büyüme beklendiği gibi AKP’ni (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi) pozitif yönde etkilerken MHP’ni (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi) olumsuz yönde etkilemiştir. Fakat CHP (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi bulunmamıştır. Muhalefet partileri işsizlik oranından etkilenmezken, işsizlik oranının yüksek olduğu illerde AKP oy alamamıştır. Çalışmada ayrıca AKP’nin daha yüksek kamu harcamaları yaptığı

Ekonomik Faktörlerin 2011 Türkiye Genel Seçimlerine Etkisi

This study examines the outcomes of the general election which took place on 12 June 2011. We analyze the effects of economic indicators on the results of June general election by using the provincial data. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique is used in the estimations. We find that the political parties preserved their core voters or sympathizers. Provincial economic growth positively affects the AKP (Justice and Development Party) but the MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) negatively as expected. However, it does not have any influence on the CHP (Republican People’s Party). Provinces suffering from higher unemployment rates do not vote for the AKP while opposition parties are not affected by unemployment rates. It is also found that vote share of the incumbent party does not increase in the provinces in which higher public spending has been made by the AKP. In terms of regions, our results indicate that the ruling party increased its vote share more in the provinces where the voters are of average or higher level of income and education.

Kaynakça

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Kaynak Göster