KÜRESELLEŞME SÜRECİNDE DIŞ BORÇLARIN DIŞ TİCARET ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ : TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Küreselleşme ile beraber artan uluslararası sermaye akımları, ekonomik gelişimlerini kendi sermaye birikimleri vasıtası ile gerçekleştiremeyen gelişmekte olan ülkeler için birçok fırsatı da beraberinde getirmiştir. Söz konusu fırsatlardan en önemlisi ise dış borçlanmalardır. Dış borçlanmaların fırsat olarak kabul edilmesi ise bu türden kaynakların ekonomik büyümeye yönelik harcamalarda kullanılması ile paralellik arz etmektedir. Bundan yola çıkılarak hazırlanan çalışmada, 1980’li yıllardan itibaren ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejisi benimseyen ülkelerden biri olan Türkiye’de, dış borçlanmaların dış ticaret üzerindeki etkileri araştırma konusu edilmiştir. Zaman serisi ekonometrik yönteminin kullanıldığı ampirik çalışmada, 1980-2018 dönemleri arası yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin elde ettiği dış borçların, ülkenin hem ithalatı hem de ihracatı üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etki oluşturduğunu göstermiştir. Çalışmaya kontrol değişken olarak dahil edilen doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerinin ise dış ticaret üzerine istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı görülmüştür.

THE EFFECT OF EXTERNAL DEBT ON FOREIGN TRADE IN THE GLOBALIZATION PROCESS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

International capital flows, which have increased with globalization, have brought with itself many opportunities for developing countries that cannot realize their economic development through their own capital accumulations. The most important of these opportunities is external borrowing. The acceptance of foreign borrowings as an opportunity is in line with the use of such resources in expenditures for economic growth. Based on this, the study focused on the effects of foreign borrowing on foreign trade in Turkey, one of the countries that adopted an export-based growth strategy since the 1980s. Annual data between 1980 and 2018 years were used in the empirical study in which time series econometric method was used. The results showed that Turkey's foreign debt had a positive and statistically significant impact on both imports and exports of the country. Foreign direct investment inflows included in the study as control variables had no statistically significant effect on foreign trade.

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