Kazakistan Ekonomisinin Petrole Bağımlılığının Azaltılmasında Para Politikasının Rolü

Kazakistan, 1991 yılında bağımsızlığını kazandıktan sonra, 1998 yılına kadar piyasa ekonomisi koşullarına geçişin sancılarını yaşamıştır. 2000 yılından itibaren petrol fiyatlarındaki yükselmeyle birlikte, reel gayri safi yurt içi hasıla önemli ölçüde artarken; üretim, istihdam ve dış ticaret açısından petrol sektörüne bağımlı bir yapı ortaya çıkmıştır. Kazakistan ekonomisinin petrole bağımlılığı nasıl azaltılabilir? sorusu hem kısa vadeli, hem de uzun vadeli iktisat politikası çözümlerinin üretilmesi açısından kritik bir sorudur. Bu çalışmada, Kazakistan ekonomisinin iktisadi dinamiklerinin petrol sektörüne bağlı olarak şekillenmesine yol açan faktörlerin, dış kaynak kullanımındaki sorunlar ile reform çabalarındaki yetersizlik olduğu ortaya konmakta ve petrol sektörüne bağımlılığın azaltılması açısından, kısa dönemde, para politikasının rolünün ne olabileceği tartışılmaktadır. Kazakistan Merkez Bankasının Tenge’nin reel değerinin petrol fiyatlarına bağlı olarak istikrarsızlaşmasını önleyebilecek bir sisteme yönelmesi gerektiği vurgulanmaktadır.

The Role of Monetary Policy in Reducing Kazakh Economy’s Dependence on Oil

Kazakhstan suffered seriously from the transition to market economy from 1991, when it declared its independence, to 1998. As of 2000, with the increase in oil prices, Kazakhstan’s real gross domestic product increased significantly. However, the country also witnessed the emergence of an economic structure that is highly dependent on the oil sector for production, employment and foreign trade. How Kazakh economy’s dependence on the petroleum sector can be reduced is a critical question concerning the development of both short term and long term economic policies. This study demonstrates that the dependence of Kazakh economy on the oil sector is caused mainly by the problems concerning the use of foreign financial resources and the insufficiency of reform efforts. The study also discusses what role, if any, monetary policies could play in the short run in reducing Kazakhstan’s dependence on oil. Finally, the study stresses the need for the Central Bank of Kazakhstan to move towards a system that could prevent Tenge’s real value from destabilizing as a result of the changes in oil prices.

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